Visual object tracking, crucial in aerial applications such as surveillance, cinematography, and chasing, faces challenges despite AI advancements. Current solutions lack full reliability, leading to common tracking failures in the presence of fast motions or long‐term occlusions of the subject. To tackle this issue, a 3D motion model is proposed that employs camera/vehicle states to locate a subject in the inertial coordinates. Next, a probability distribution is generated over future trajectories and they are sampled using a Monte Carlo technique to provide search regions that are fed into an online appearance learning process. This 3D motion model incorporates machine‐learning approaches for direct range estimation from monocular images. The model adapts computationally by adjusting search areas based on tracking confidence. It is integrated into DiMP, an online and deep learning‐based appearance model. The resulting tracker is evaluated on the VIOT dataset with sequences of both images and camera states, achieving a 68.9% tracking precision compared to DiMP's 49.7%. This approach demonstrates increased tracking duration, improved recovery after occlusions, and faster motions. Additionally, this strategy outperforms random searches by about 3.0%.