Multi‐decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sousa, Valerie A.; Sullivan, Maura E.; Minckley, Thomas A.; Clifford, Michael J.

doi:10.1890/11-1068.1

Cited by 74 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…Although the timing and magnitude of the MCA were spatially heterogeneous, temperatures during the period approached 20 th century values across much of the Northern Hemisphere, and many areas experienced exceptional hydroclimatic variability (27). Paleorecords of the period thus offer an opportunity to assess the ecosystem impacts of ongoing and future climate change (37). Here, we juxtapose recent burning in the YF with fire regime dynamics of the MCA and discuss implications for future change.…”

Section: Pushing the Limits: Recent Fire Regime Dynamics And Implicatmentioning

confidence: 97%

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

Kelly¹,

Chipman

Higuera

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

351

333

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Wildfire activity in boreal forests is anticipated to increase dramatically, with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. Paleorecords are indispensible for elucidating boreal fire regime dynamics under changing climate, because fire return intervals and successional cycles in these ecosystems occur over decadal to centennial timescales. We present charcoal records from 14 lakes in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, one of the most flammable ecoregions of the boreal forest biome, to infer causes and consequences of fire regime change over the past 10,000 y. Strong correspondence between charcoal-inferred and observational fire records shows the fidelity of sedimentary charcoal records as archives of past fire regimes. Fire frequency and area burned increased ∼6,000–3,000 y ago, probably as a result of elevated landscape flammability associated with increased Picea mariana in the regional vegetation. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ∼1,000–500 cal B.P.), the period most similar to recent decades, warm and dry climatic conditions resulted in peak biomass burning, but severe fires favored less-flammable deciduous vegetation, such that fire frequency remained relatively stationary. These results suggest that boreal forests can sustain high-severity fire regimes for centuries under warm and dry conditions, with vegetation feedbacks modulating climate–fire linkages. The apparent limit to MCA burning has been surpassed by the regional fire regime of recent decades, which is characterized by exceptionally high fire frequency and biomass burning. This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity. However, vegetation dynamics similar to feedbacks that occurred during the MCA may stabilize the fire regime, despite additional warming.

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Section: Pushing the Limits: Recent Fire Regime Dynamics And Implicatmentioning

confidence: 97%

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

Kelly¹,

Chipman

Higuera

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

351

333

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“…As in dendroclimatic reconstructions, detrending WTD data removes potential non-climatic signals but concurrently limits paleoclimate inferences to extreme centennial to multidecadal events (Charman et al, 2006;Booth et al, 2012).…”

Section: Bog Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vegetation is controlled by many factors in addition to climate, however, and would ideally be reserved to evaluate the ecological responses to the climate history rather than used for both climate and ecological reconstruction, especially in a modeling context. Data reflecting hydroclimatic variability are more abundant in the NE US, coming from tree-rings (e.g., Cook andKrusic, 2004, 2008;Pederson et al, 2014), lake levels (e.g., Shuman et al, 2002), variations in lake chemistry (e.g., Li et al, 2007), shifts in diatoms (Boeff et al, 2016), and changes in testate amoeba composition from bog sediments (e.g., Booth et al, 2012). Such data show relatively wet conditions in the late versus the mid-Holocene (Digerfeldt et al, 1992;Almquist et al, 2001;Shuman et al, 2009) with increasing effective moisture towards present (Newby et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks -vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes -are strongly influenced by multidecadal-to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE-1700 CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750 CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

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“…2 and 3, and they often look no further. They find implicit justification in three decades of broad-scale comparisons of paleoecological records with paleoenvironmental records (20,77,79) and with paleoclimate simulations from general circulation models (44,51). By itself, ecological drift would produce a mosaic of community types independent of environmental mosaics.…”

Section: Communities Come Communities Gomentioning

confidence: 99%

Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary

Jackson

Blois

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

164

125

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Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit. community ecology | Quaternary paleoecology | climate change Community ecology and Quaternary paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages, including patterns of spatial variation and dynamics in changing environments. Community ecology focuses on the here and now of existing species assemblages, emphasizing mechanistic understanding of local species interactions and their consequences. Quaternary paleoecology uses geohistorical evidence (1) to infer properties of past communities and how they have changed, at local to regional scales, during the past few thousand to the past 2.6 million years. Both fields are under increasing demand to inform scientists, resource managers, and policymakers of what might be in store for biodiversity and ecosystems services under ongoing and future global change (2-5). Despite their shared concerns, however, community ecology and Quaternary paleoecology are fundamentally disconnected, with relatively little engagement.

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Multi‐decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region

Cited by 74 publications

References 47 publications

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary

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