Multi-Decadal Glacier Area and Mass Balance Change in the Southern Peruvian Andes

Taylor, Liam; Quincey, Duncan J.; Smith, Mark W.; Potter, Emily; Castro, Joshua; Fyffe, Catriona

doi:10.3389/feart.2022.863933

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…In terms of the impact on weather and climate patterns, the rain-snow perspective has been widely assessed in different literature [5,6,8,11], however, very few of them have taken into account the existence of graupel and hail within the solid phase. While snow impact in glacier dynamics has been demonstrated in the literature [36][37][38], information related to hail's impact on glacier accumulation processes remains unknown. Several factors have contributed to this limited level of understanding, for instance, hail events or hailstorms are very short in duration (some can last only a few minutes) and are difficult to model and collect direct data, especially in places with complex topography [39].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking Water Sustainability: Precipitation Changes in the Peruvian Andes in the Face of Climate Change

Peña,

Valdivia,

Yarleque

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In high-altitude regions, such as the Peruvian Andes, understanding the transformation of precipitation types under climate change is critical to the sustainability of water resources and the survival of glaciers. Conventional wisdom has primarily focused on the snow-rain dichotomy, often overlooking the potential importance of graupel and hail. In this study, we offer a fresh perspective on this issue, investigating the distribution and types of precipitation on a tropical glacier in the Central Andes. We utilized data from an optical-laser disdrometer and compact weather station installed at 4709 m ASL, combined with future climate scenarios from the CMIP6 project, to model potential future changes in precipitation, including the often-ignored hydrometeor forms of graupel and hail. Our findings highlight that increasing temperatures could lead to significant reductions in solid-phase precipitation, including graupel and hail, with implications for the mass balance of Andean glaciers. For instance, a 2°C rise might result in less than 10\% of precipitation as solid, transforming the hydrological processes of the region. The two future climate scenarios from the CMIP6 project, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, offer a broad perspective on potential climate outcomes that could impact precipitation patterns in the Andes. Our study underscores the need to revisit and expand our understanding of high-altitude precipitation in the face of climate change, paving the way for improved water resource management strategies and sustainable glacier preservation efforts in these fragile ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking Water Sustainability: Precipitation Changes in the Peruvian Andes in the Face of Climate Change

Peña,

Valdivia,

Yarleque

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Seehaus et al (2019) estimated that glacier extent in the Peruvian Andes, home to ~70% of the world's tropical glaciers reduced by 29% between 2000 and 2016 with over half of this retreat occurring in the last three years of this period. Taylor et al (2022) estimated glacier area losses of between 54 and 64% (1970-2020) across three mountain ranges in the Southern Peruvian Andes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physically-based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes

Mackay,

Barrand,

Hannah

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. In recent years, opportunities have opened up to develop and validate glacier models in regions that have previously been infeasible due to observation and/or computational constraints, due to the availability of globally-capable glacier evolution modelling codes and spatially-extensive geodetic validation data. The glaciers in the tropical Andes represent some of the least observed and modelled glaciers in the world, making their trajectories under climate change uncertain. Studies to date, have typically adopted empirical models of the surface energy balance and ice flow to simulate glacier evolution under climate change, but these may miss important non-linearities in future glacier mass changes. We combine two globally-capable modelling codes that provide a more physical representation of these processes: i) JULES which solves the full energy balance of snow and ice; and ii) OGGM which solves a flowline representation of the shallow ice equation to simulate ice flow. JULES-OGGM is applied to over 500 tropical glaciers in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in Peru and is evaluated against available glaciological and geodetic mass balance observations to assess the potential for using the modelling workflow to simulate tropical glacier evolution over decadal timescales. We show that the JULES-OGGM model can be parameterised to capture decadal (2000–2018) mass changes of individual glaciers, but that limitations of the JULES prognostic snow model prevent accurate replication of observed surface albedo fluctuations. We conclude that this inhibits the robustness of extrapolating the JULES parameters across multiple glaciers. When driven with statistically-downscaled climate change projections, the JULES-OGGM simulations indicate that, contrary to point-scale energy balance studies, sublimation plays a very minor role in glacier evolution at the basin scale and does not bring about significant non-linearities in the glacier response to climate warming. The ensemble mean simulation estimates that total glacier mass will decrease to 17 % and 6 % of that in 2000 by 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively which is more conservative than estimates from some other global glacier models.

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“…Tropical Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to the sea level rise on Earth. Over the period from 1975 to 2020, the Southern Peruvian Andes have receded by ∼32% and are now at less than half their original size [3,4]. Recent studies indicate a glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca of approximately 46% from 1930 to 2016 [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notes: 1 : Mat: Matern, M. Stein's parameterization; Exp: exponential model 2. : C 0 : Nugget effect, and3 Sill 4. : κ (kappa) is a range parameter of the Matern parametrization.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for National Glacier Mapping: Evaluating Performance through Spatial Cross-Validation in Perú

Bueno,

Macera,

Montoya

2023

Water

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Accurate glacier mapping is crucial for assessing future water security in Andean ecosystems. Traditional accuracy assessment may be biased due to overlooking spatial autocorrelation during map validation. In recent years, spatial cross-validation (CV) strategies have been proposed in environmental and ecological modeling to reduce bias in predictive accuracy. In this study, we demonstrate the influence of spatial autocorrelation on the accuracy assessment of glacier surface predictive models. This is achieved by comparing the performance of several widely used machine learning algorithms including the gradient-boosting machines (GBM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR) for mapping nine main Peruvian glacier regions. Spatial and non-spatial cross-validation methods were used to evaluate the model’s classification errors in terms of the Matthews correlation coefficient. Performance differences of up to 18% were found between bias-reduced (spatial) and overoptimistic (non-spatial) cross-validation results. Regarding only spatial CV, the k-nearest neighbors were the overall best model across Huallanca (0.90), Huayhuasha (0.78), Huaytapallana (0.96), Raura (0.93), Urubamba (0.96), Vilcabamba (0.93), and Vilcanota (0.92) regions, consistently demonstrating the highest performance followed by logistic regression at Blanca (0.95) and Central (0.97) regions. Our validation approach, accounting for spatial characteristics, provides valuable insights for glacier mapping studies and future efforts on glacier retreat monitoring. Incorporating this approach improves the reliability of glacier mapping, guiding future national-level initiatives.

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Multi-Decadal Glacier Area and Mass Balance Change in the Southern Peruvian Andes

Cited by 11 publications

References 65 publications

Rethinking Water Sustainability: Precipitation Changes in the Peruvian Andes in the Face of Climate Change

Rethinking Water Sustainability: Precipitation Changes in the Peruvian Andes in the Face of Climate Change

Physically-based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for National Glacier Mapping: Evaluating Performance through Spatial Cross-Validation in Perú

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