Multi-decadal variations of ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

Lee, Han Soo; Yamashitâ, Takao; Mishima, Toyoaki

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.04.009

Cited by 45 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The EMD method is adaptive and therefore highly efficient. As the decomposition is based on the local characteristics of the data, it is applicable to nonlinear and nonstationary natural processes including sea surface temperature, tropical cyclone data [Lee et al, 2012], and sea level variations as in this study. As stated earlier, the storm surge can be obtained by subtracting the predicted tides from the observed sea level records.…”

Section: Statistical Significance Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA

Lee

2013

JGR Oceans

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[1] Extreme sea levels due to storm surge and future sea level rise (SLR) in the year 2050 are estimated using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme value analysis (EVA) based on long-term sea level records from Hiron Point (HP) on the coast of western Bangladesh. EEMD is an adaptive method that can detrend the nonlinear trend and separate the tidal motions from the original sea level records to reconstruct storm surge levels at HP. The reconstructed storm surge levels are then applied to EVA to obtain the extreme storm surges in the target return periods at a 95% confidence interval (CI). The 30, 50, and 100 year return levels at HP obtained by EVA are 1.59, 1.66, and 1.75 m. The SLR trend obtained from EEMD is 4.46 mm/yr over April 1990 to March 2009, which is larger than the recent altimetry-based global rate of 3.3 6 0.4 mm/yr over the period from 1993 to 2007. The resulting SLR in 2050 is estimated as 0.34 m. Therefore, the extreme sea level in 2050 due to SLR and the storm surge at a 100 year return level would be 2.09 m (95% CI from 1.91 to 2.48 m). The SLR depends not only on changes in the mass and volume of sea water but also on other factors, such as local subsidence, river discharge, sediment and the effects of vegetation. The residual nonlinear trend of SLR obtained from EEMD can be regarded as an adaptive sea level after considering those factors and their nonlinearity.Citation: Lee, H. S. (2013), Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA,

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Section: Statistical Significance Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA

Lee

2013

JGR Oceans

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“…Lupo and Johnston () had suggested that the difference in the frequency of Atlantic cyclones between El Niño (fewer tropical cyclone) and La Niña (more tropical cyclone) years shows a decadal variability, which is related to the decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. The frequency of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific also shows a decadal variability associated with the PDO (Lee et al ., ; Wang et al ., ). It was also shown that the number of tropical cyclones over the Pacific, which undergo rapid intensification, is less (high) in the warm (cold) phases of the PDO (Wang et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal

Vishnu

Francis

Shenoi

et al. 2018

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This study investigates the relationship between inter‐decadal variation in the number of monsoon depressions (MDs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is shown that there is an out‐of‐phase variation in the number of MDs over the BoB and the PDO, except during 1927–1945. Quantitative estimates of the relative contributions of individual environmental parameters show that the variation in the mid‐tropospheric relative humidity over the BoB is the primary reason for the observed variation in the number of MDs. It is further postulated that the variation in the sea surface temperature in the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the PDO could be one of the reasons for the changes in the moisture advection over to the BoB and hence the variation in the number of MDs in inter‐decadal timescale.

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“…In the Pacific Ocean, the El Niño and La Niña episodes have irregular intervals for their occurrence of 3-5 years (in the historical record, this interval varies from 2 to 7 years) (Lee et al, 2012). Since the oscillatory IMFs contain possible physical meanings, the IMF12, IMF13 and IMF14 may correspond to the irregular occurrence intervals of the El Niño and La Niña episodes.…”

Section: Storm Surge From Eemdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Extreme Sea Levels Due to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

Lee

2014

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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The extreme sea level due to storm surge and future sea-level rise (SLR) in the year of 2050 and 2100 are estimated by using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme value analysis (EVA) with long-term sea level records in and around the Seto Inland Sea, Japan. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition, an adaptive data analysis method, can separate the tidal motions and the non-linear trend from the sea level records to reconstruct the storm surge levels, and then the reconstructed storm surge levels are applied to statistical model, EVA, to obtain the extreme storm surges at 95% confidence interval in the target return periods. The SLR trend at Tokuyama in the Seto Inland Sea obtained from EEMD is 3.58 mm/yr over 1993-2010, which is slightly larger than the recent altimetrybased global rate of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr over 1993-2007. The resulting SLR in 2050 and 2100 estimated are 0.18 m and 0.49 m, respectively. The 30-, 50-, and 100-yr return levels at Tokuyama obtained by EVA are 1.30 m, 1.43 m and 1.64 m. Therefore, the extreme sea level in 2050 and 2100 due to future SLR and storm surge with 100-yr return level would be 1.82 m (1.35 m ~ 2.26 m with 95% confidence intervals) and 2.13 m (1.75 m ~ 3.10 m with 95% confidence intervals), respectively. The SLR is not only due to mass and volume changes of sea water, but also due to other factors such as local subsidence, river discharge and sediments, and vegetation effect. The non-linear trend of SLR, which is the residue from EEMD, can be regarded as a final consequential sea level after considering those factors and their nonlinearity. The combined EEMD-EVA method can be useful tool not only for the extreme sea level estimation under climate change, but also for many cases in coastal engineering and hydrology.

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Multi-decadal variations of ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

Cited by 45 publications

References 33 publications

Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA

Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA

On the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal

Modelling Extreme Sea Levels Due to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

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