Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Abstract

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the impact of climate, cropping intensity and means of irrigation: an assessment on rice yield determinants in Bangladesh

“…This corresponds with findings from simulation models, which indicated a decreased rice yield under temperature increase in future scenarios of climate change [17][18][19][20][21]. The temperature effect in the model is not strong, with a slope in the model of approximately 0.14 t/ha rice yield per 1 °C.…”

“…The effect of rainfall on yield is also negative. Whereas the intensity of disasters, especially drought, and flooding may affect rice yield regionally [19,43], data were not available at the spatial and temporal resolution and extent of the present study. Hence, our results need to be treated with some level of caution.…”

“…Simulation models, such as Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT), generally predict a reduction of yield under future climate scenarios [17][18][19]. The response is dependent on rice ecotype, with rain-fed types showing negative temperature responses and mixed results for the irrigated variety Boro [17,20,21].…”

“…The response is dependent on rice ecotype, with rain-fed types showing negative temperature responses and mixed results for the irrigated variety Boro [17,20,21]. At the broad scale, production will likely be reduced by an expected future increase in flooding events and potentially be increased by CO 2 fertilization [19]. In contrast, empirical analyses of government statistics relating rice yield historic records to climatic variables show positive past response of yield to higher temperatures for Aus and Aman varieties [22,23].…”

The Sustainability of Rice-Based Cropping Systems in Coastal Bangladesh: Bio-Economic Analysis of Current and Future Climate Scenarios

“…Hence they concluded food insecurity will be a serious problem for the country. Ruane et al (2013) assessed the impacts of climate change (temperature, precipitation, and CO2), river floods, and sea-level rise for the 2040-2069 period on rice and wheat production in the 16 upazilas of Bangladesh as compared with historical climate. The study combined the CERES crop model with the Mike-Basin hydrologic model for river floods and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model for sea-level rise.…”