Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping of cryospheric hazards in a high-Arctic environment: Svalbard Archipelago

Nicu, Ionuţ Cristi; Elia, Letizia; Rubensdotter, Lena; Tanyaş, Hakan; Lombardo, Luigi

doi:10.5194/essd-15-447-2023

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 92 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Nicu, Lombardo, et al, 2021 presented a preliminary view on thaw slumps affecting cultural heritage in Nordenskiöld Land, Svalbard, concluding (based on data from 2009 to 2011) that thaw slumps are affecting eight sites (represented by a trapping cabin, restored grave, and new Russian cross—they are taken as one, remains of posts, Russian hut, a house foundation, a boat house, a cabin, and a Russian cottage). Making predictive models of climate‐induced processes (especially thaw slump), will lead to a better understanding of the environmental factors contributing to their occurrence and development (Nicu et al, 2022). Models made for certain areas could be adapted for other circum‐Arctic areas (Rudy et al, 2016), as is a frequent practice for landslides in non‐Arctic and non‐Antarctic areas.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Immovable Cultural Heritage In ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review

Nicu

Fatorić

2023

WIREs Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under-represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision-and policy-maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures.

show abstract

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Immovable Cultural Heritage In ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review

Nicu

Fatorić

2023

WIREs Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Satellite imagery at 30 m resolution from Landsat has been used to analyze RTSs and thermokarst lakes in the region of Alaska within the circumpolar Arctic, eastern Canada, and Siberia (Nitze et al, 2018). Nicu et al (2023) employed orthorectified imagery with a resolution of 5 m to visually interpret and identify cryospheric hazards (such as thaw slumps and thermo-erosion gullies) in Nordenskiöld Land, covering an approximate area of 4000 km 2 in the Svalbard Archipelago. The permafrost zone of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has been a site of thermokarst geomorphology research in recent years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The first hillslope thermokarst inventory for the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains

Peng,

Yang,

Frauenfeld

et al. 2024

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances result in permafrost degradation in cold regions, including in the Qilian Mountains. These changes lead to extensive hillslope thermokarst (HT) formation, such as retrogressive thaw slumps, active-layer detachment slides, and thermal erosion gullies. These in turn cause, e.g., degradation of local vegetation, economic losses, infrastructure damages, and threats to human safety. However, despite its importance, there is currently no thermokarst inventory for the Qilian Mountains. Through manual visual interpretation and field validation, we therefore produce the first quantification of HT features. We count a total of 1064 HT features, with 67 % located in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin, which encompasses ∼ 13 % of the Qilian Mountains region. We further identified that 187 HT features (18 %) existed before 2010, while the remaining 874 (82 %) were initiated in the recent period. More specifically, 392 sites (37 %) were initiated during 2010–2015 and 482 (45 %) after 2015. Thermokarst terrain is observed primarily in areas with shallow active-layer depths (average thickness 2.98 m) on northern shaded slopes of 3–25°, with low solar radiation and moderate elevations ranging from 3200 to 4000 m. This first inventory of HT features is an important and missing piece in documenting changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, and this new dataset also provides an important basis for further studies, such as automated extraction of HT features, susceptibility analysis of HT, and estimation of losses caused by HT. The datasets are available from the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center and can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.11888/Cryos.tpdc.300805 (Peng and Yang, 2023).

show abstract

“…To complement this assessment, we also report the probability density function of the susceptibility spectrum, together with the estimated Youden Index (Y = 0.52) in Figure4b. This cutoff leads to the confusion matrix and confusion maps (see also,Nicu et al, 2023) shown in Figure4c. There, we summarize the frequency distribution for each class of the confusion matrix and plot the corresponding geographic distribution expression across China.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the use of explainable AI for susceptibility modeling: examining the spatial pattern of SHAP values

Wang¹,

Zhang²,

Dahal³

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hydro-morphological processes (HMP, any natural phenomenon contained within the spectrum defined between debris flows and flash floods) are globally occurring natural hazards which pose great threats to our society, leading to fatalities and economical losses. For this reason, understanding the dynamics behind HMPs is needed to aid in hazard and risk assessment. In this work, we take advantage of an explainable deep learning model to extract global and local interpretations of the HMP occurrences across the whole Chinese territory. We use a neural network architecture and interpret the model results through the spatial pattern of SHAP values.In doing so, we can understand the model prediction on a hierarchical basis, looking at how the predictor set controls the overall susceptibility as well as doing the same at the level of the single mapping unit.Traditional statistical tools usually lead to a clear interpretation at the expense of large performance, which is otherwise reached via machine/deep learning solutions, though at the expense of interpretation. Explainable AI is the key to combine both strengths and in this work, we explore this combination in the context of HMP susceptibility modeling. Specifically, we demonstrate the extent to which one can enter a new level of data-driven interpretation, supporting the decision-making process behind disaster risk mitigation and prevention actions.

show abstract

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping of cryospheric hazards in a high-Arctic environment: Svalbard Archipelago

Cited by 14 publications

References 92 publications

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review

The first hillslope thermokarst inventory for the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains

On the use of explainable AI for susceptibility modeling: examining the spatial pattern of SHAP values

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About