Multi-model climatic water balance prediction in the Zala River Basin (Hungary) based on a modified Budyko framework

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Providing information on the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes is becoming ever more critical. Modelling and evaluating the expected changes of the water resources over different spatial and time scales can be useful in several fields, e.g. agriculture, forestry and water management. Previously a Budyko-type spatially distributed long-term climate-runoff model was developed for Hungary. This research includes the validation of the model using historical precipitation and streamflow measurements for three nested sub-catchments of the Zala River Basin (Hungary), an essential runoff contributing region to Lake Balaton (the largest shallow lake in Central Europe). The differences between the calculated (from water balance) and the estimated (by the model) mean annual evapotranspiration varied between 0.4% and 3.6% in the validation periods in the sub-catchments examined. Predictions of the main components of the water balance (evapotranspiration and runoff) for the Zala Basin are also presented in this study using precipitation and temperature results of 12 regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario) as input data. According to the projections, the mean annual temperature will be higher from period to period (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100), while the change of the annual precipitation sum is not significant. The mean annual evapotranspiration rate is expected to increase slightly during the 21st century, while for runoff a substantial decrease can be anticipated which may exceed 40% by 2071–2100 relative to the reference period (1981–2010). As a result of this predicted reduction, the runoff from the Zala Basin may not be enough to balance the increased evaporation rate of Lake Balaton, transforming it into a closed lake without outflow.</jats:p>

The impact of land use on future water balance - A simple approach for analysing climate change effects

“…Based on standard future climate scenarios, an increase in ET M is expected in future decades, with a remarkable shift predicted for SOIL M , indicating that less soil water will be available for plant growth during summer months in the studied region, and confirming the evidences reported by studies using similar methods (Lutz et al 2010, Var Der Linden et al 2019, Csáki et al 2020). In the case of the forested area considered, a lower water stress for plants is expected to occur compared to the other two sites (mixed parcel and agricultural field) due to the larger soil moisture reservoir of forest stands.…”

“…They reported the same trends as in our study, with a rise in temperature and evapotranspiration values between their investigation periods. They found that absolute changes of annual crop evapotranspiration is insignificant, with a maximum value of 49 mm (0.06%) between 1961-1990and 1991-2010. Csáki et al (2020 presented a long-term, spatially distributed, Budyko-type climaterunoff model tested on the Zala River Basin (an essential runoff contributing region to Lake Balaton in Hungary).…”

“…Herceg Previous studies modeling the impact of climate change on water balance (Lutz et al 2010, Remrová & Císlerová 2010, Van Der Linden et al 2019, Csáki et al 2020 revealed that evapotranspiration may increase, but soil water content may decrease in the future due to presumably increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation, thereby leading to possible enhanced water scarcity towards the end of the 21 st century. Thus, modelling the expected changes in water resources over different time scales can be crucial for water management, agriculture, forestry, and civil engineering in the Carpathian Basin region (Gáspár et al 2017, Hlásny et al 2014, Mátyás et al 2018.…”

Land-use changes and precipitation cycles to understand hydrodynamic responses in semiarid Mediterranean karstic watersheds

“…This method is wellestablished in the hydrological literature and its low data requirement makes it accurate for practical uses (Linsley et al, 1977;D'Asaro et al, 2018). The Muskingum method assumes linear relationships between channel storage, the inflow and the outflow discharge (Overton, 1966), and allows us to depict two main parameters called K and X, which are usually derived by calibration protocols using measured discharge hydrographs (Abbaspour et al, 2017;Azmat et al, 2018;Csáki et al, 2020). In our study, a value of 0.6 was adopted as the response time (K), which represents the transit time of the flow wave in the measured hydrograms according to the characteristics of the basin channels.…”

“…(Aburas et al, 2019;Assefa et al, 2020). Particularly, land-use changes are producing variations in the hydrological response with irreparable modification of the water cycle and increases in the maximum flow peaks during runoff events (Camarasa-Belmonte, 2016;Alonso-Sarría et al, 2016;Csáki et al, 2020;Sánchez-Galiano et al, 2017;Pardo et al, 2020). Nowadays, the application of remote sensing techniques (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) has propelled Earth observations, improving the identification and mapping of land use and respective changes (Petchprayoon et al, 2010;Nayeb-Yazdi et al, 2021;Đukic and Erić, 2021).…”