Multi‐model ensemble of <scp>CMIP6</scp> projections for future extreme climate stress on wheat in the North China plain

Bai, Haiyan; Xiao, Dengpan; Wang, Bin; Liu, De Li; Feng, Ping; Tang, Jianzhao

doi:10.1002/joc.6674

Cited by 64 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Over 900 Mha land is impacted by salinity in the whole world (Rengasamy, 2006;Shiade and Boelt, 2020). Climate change such as extreme warming is expected to be more frequent in the future (Khan and Qaiser, 2006;Blackport and Screen, 2020;Bai et al, 2021). Such change could significantly affect seed germination (Walck et al, 2011;Mondoni et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Seed Germination of Three Common Grass Species

et al. 2021

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Temperature and salinity significantly affect seed germination, but the joint effects of temperature and salinity on seed germination are still unclear. To explore such effects, a controlled experiment was conducted, where three temperature levels (i.e., 15, 20, and 25°C) and five salinity levels (i.e., 0, 25, 50, 100, and 200 mmol/L) were crossed, resulting in 15 treatments (i.e., 3 temperature levels × 5 salinity levels). Three typical grass species (Festuca arundinacea, Bromus inermis, and Elymus breviaristatus) were used, and 25 seeds of each species were sown in petri dishes under these treatments. Germination percentages and germination rates were calculated on the basis of the daily recorded germinated seed numbers of each species. Results showed that temperature and salinity significantly affected seed germination percentage and germination rate, which differed among species. Specifically, F. arundinacea had the highest germination percentage, followed by E. breviaristatus and B. inermis, with a similar pattern also found regarding the accumulated germination rate and daily germination rate. Generally, F. arundinacea was not sensitive to temperature within the range of 15–25°C, while the intermediate temperature level improved the germination percentage of B. inermis, and the highest temperature level benefited the germination percentage of E. breviaristatus. Moreover, F. arundinacea was also not sensitive to salinity within the range of 0–200 mmol/L, whereas high salinity levels significantly decreased the germination percentage of B. inermis and E. breviaristatus. Thus, temperature and salinity can jointly affect seed germination, but these differ among plant species. These results can improve our understanding of seed germination in saline soils in the face of climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Seed Germination of Three Common Grass Species

et al. 2021

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“…However, due to warming climate, extreme climate events are anticipated to increase, which are likely to produce negative impacts on crop production (Porter and Semenov, 2005). When the crop phenology changes in the future are not considered, Bai et al (2020) noted that the frequency and intensity of heat extremes during wheat growing season were projected to increase over the 21st century for SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, but those of cold extremes will decrease. In this study, the results showed that heat days around flowering had no significant change or a slight decrease for wheat under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More detailed description of the method can be found in Liu and Zuo (2012). Bai et al (2020) assessed the performance of the downscaled GCMs data from CMIP6 in reproducing historical changes of extreme climate indices using the multi-model arithmetic mean and found that the ensemble results could better reproduce historical changes of extreme climate than any individual GCM. In this study, we downscaled climate inputs for APSIM model for the 1961-2100 period at the four agro-meteorological stations under each of the 20 GCMs for SSP245 and SSP585.…”

Section: Climate and Crop Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Generally, proper adjustment of cultivars and sowing dates can reduce the impact of extreme climate stress on crop production (Bai et al, 2020). Gouache et al (2012) showed that compared to the reference strategy, earlier sowing wheat by 30 days can decrease heat stress days by 0.9 days, and heattolerant cultivar can reduce heat stress days by 3.5 days during wheat grain filling in the future period 2070-2099.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain

et al. 2022

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Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040S) and 2071–2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by −0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9–12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

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“…The region has a warm temperate monsoon climate with plenty of light and heat resources [37]. The mean annual temperature across the study area ranged from 9.6 to 16.0 • C in nearly fifty years [38]. The annual precipitation is not evenly distributed, with over 70% of precipitation appearing in July through September.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain

et al. 2022

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Climate change has and will continue to exert significant effects on social economy, natural environment, and human life. Research on the climatic suitability of crops is critical for mitigating and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change on crop production. In the study, we developed the climate suitability model of maize and investigated the climate suitability of summer maize during the base period (1981–2010) and two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) in the North China Plain (NCP) based on BCC-CSM2-MR model (BCC) from the Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 245 and SSP585. The phenological shift of maize under future climate scenarios was simulated by the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSE) between observations and projections for sunshine suitability (SS), temperature suitability (ST), precipitation suitability (SP), and integrated climate suitability (SZ) during the whole growth period were 0.069, 0.072, 0.057, and 0.040, respectively. Overall, the BCC projections for climate suitability were in suitable consistency with the observations in the NCP. During 1981–2010, the SP, ST, and SZ were high in the north of the NCP and low in the south. The SP, ST, and SZ showed a downward trend under all the future climate scenarios in most areas of NCP while the SS increased. Therein, the change range of SP and SS was 0–0.1 under all the future climate scenarios. The ST declined by 0.1–0.2 in the future except for the decrease of more than 0.3 under the SSP585 scenario in the 2080s. The decrease in SZ in the 2040s and 2080s under both SSP scenarios varied from 0 to 0.2. Moreover, the optimum area decreases greatly under future scenarios while the suitable area increases significantly. Adjusting sowing data (SD) would have essential impacts on climate suitability. To some extent, delaying SD was beneficial to improve the climate suitability of summer maize in the NCP, especially under the SSP585 scenario in the 2080s. Our findings can not only provide data support for summer maize production to adapt to climate change but also help to propose agricultural management measures to cope with future climate change.

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Multi‐model ensemble of CMIP6 projections for future extreme climate stress on wheat in the North China plain

Cited by 64 publications

References 41 publications

Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Seed Germination of Three Common Grass Species

Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Seed Germination of Three Common Grass Species

Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain

Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain

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