Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations

Supari,; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Cruz, Faye; Chung, Jing Xiang; Ngai, Sheau Tieh; Salimun, Ester; Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal; Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn; Singhruck, Patama; Phan-Van, Tan; Ngo‐Duc, Thanh; Narisma, Gemma; Aldrian, Edvin; Gunawan, Dodo; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350

Cited by 90 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Tangang et al (2018) also investigated extreme precipitation over SEA under global warming of 2 °C based on a subset of the COR-DEX-SEA simulations. A recent study by Supari et al (2020) evaluated changes in extreme precipitation over SEA region in the twenty-first century. Using available members of the CORDEX-SEA simulations, the present study aims to analyse the performance of models in simulating December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) mean rainfall in the historical period and evaluate future changes.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…A recent study by Supari et al (2020) indicated that the consecutive dry days (CDD) over Indonesia, especially Sumatra and Kalimantan, are projected to increase by more than 50% for JJA and September-October-November (SON). Such a drying condition is experienced only inter-annually during El Niño events in the current climate (Juneng and Tangang 2005;Lestari et al 2016;Supari et al 2018), which usually provides favorable conditions for widespread peatland and forest fires, causing haze episodes that have significant economic impacts in Indonesia and surrounding countries (Tangang et al 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

et al. 2020

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This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multimodel simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E-146.5° E, 14.8° S-27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976-2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070) and late twenty-first century (2071-2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10-20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10-30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

et al. 2020

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“…In order to improve the understanding of climate change mechanisms and its impacts in SEA, the SEA Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment—SEA (SEACLID/CORDEX‐SEA) project was established, and had successfully gathered members from several countries to carry out a high‐resolution multi‐model regional climate downscaling experiment (Tangang et al ., 2018; Tangang et al ., 2019; Supari et al ., 2020; http://www.ukm.edu.my/seaclid-cordex). Sensitivity experiments were first conducted using different combinations of deep‐convection and air‐sea flux parameterization schemes, which underlined the importance of choosing appropriate configuration and physical parameterization schemes for climate simulations (Juneng et al ., 2016; Cruz et al ., 2017; Ngo‐Duc et al ., 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Sensitivity experiments were first conducted using different combinations of deep‐convection and air‐sea flux parameterization schemes, which underlined the importance of choosing appropriate configuration and physical parameterization schemes for climate simulations (Juneng et al ., 2016; Cruz et al ., 2017; Ngo‐Duc et al ., 2017). Several studies using different subsets of the CORDEX‐SEA experiments for assessing future climate over the region have been done (Tangang et al ., 2019; Trinh‐Tuan et al ., 2019; Herrmann et al ., 2020; Supari et al ., 2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate analogue and future appearance of novel climate in Southeast Asia

Nguyen-Thi¹,

Ngo‐Duc

Tangang

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study identified the analogue locations of five big cities and the future appearance of novel climate in Southeast Asia (SEA) at the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenarios. A modified version of an existing formulation to estimate climate distance is introduced, using the monthly means of temperature and precipitation from six regional climate experiments and from six global climate models (GCMs). Results showed that regional downscaling allowed a more accurate representation of temperature but displayed a higher variability in rainfall over SEA compared to the GCM performance. The ensemble mean (ENS) experiment had a relatively better performance compared to each individual experiment in representing the monthly time series of temperature and precipitation. The common tendency of climatic relocation towards warmer regions for the five big cities in SEA

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“…For rainfall measurement, it reached 257.0 mm per day at the Meteorological Station Fatmawati Bengkulu while at Pulau Baai Climatological Station it reached 230.2 mm per day. These values are higher than the monthly average rainfall of September which is only about 220 mm/month for climatology of 1981–2010 so that these are classified as extreme rainfall [ 3 , 4 ]. The limited number of observations over the Bengkulu region makes extreme rainfall events difficult to be analyzed, and the existence of weather radar data offers a solution for this issue.…”

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confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of Extreme Rainfall Event on September 19-20, 2017, Using a Weather Radar in Bengkulu of Sumatra Island

Paski

Alfahmi

Permana

et al. 2020

The Scientific World Journal

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Extreme rainfall accompanied by strong winds hit the province of Bengkulu in the western coastal area of Sumatera Island during September 19-20, 2017, causing floods and landslides in Seluma and Central Bengkulu district. This extreme rainfall was recorded by Bengkulu Meteorological Station about 257.0 mm day−1 using rain-gauge observation. The spatial distribution of extreme rainfall cannot be seen if only using a rain-gauge observation in this location. The spatial distribution of extreme rainfall is needed to identify the impact of rainfall on landslides in large areas. The study aims to (1) develop the reconstruction of the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall using weather radar and (2) investigate the trigger that caused extreme rainfall by analyzing the synoptic-scale tropical waves. Each weather radar datum is saved in a Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (CAPPI). To get rainfall information, the CAPPI must be derived from Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) values. In this paper, we derived CAPPI using a Marshall-Palmer reflectivity-rain rate relationship. The result shows that rainfall formed on September 20, 2017, 21.00 UTC with total daily rainfall ranged between 176 and 247 mm in both districts and the mean of total daily rainfall has exceeded the average of monthly rainfall. The analysis of tropical waves suggests that only Kelvin waves were active and served as a possible trigger factor while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby (ER) waves were inactive during this extreme rainfall.

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Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations

Cited by 90 publications

References 64 publications

Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

Climate analogue and future appearance of novel climate in Southeast Asia

Reconstruction of Extreme Rainfall Event on September 19-20, 2017, Using a Weather Radar in Bengkulu of Sumatra Island

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