Multi‐objective approach to forecast design refresh time due to COTS obsolescence

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide program managers and systems engineers with a novel algorithm in determining the design refresh time (DRT) of sustainmentdominated systems due to COTS obsolescence. Most of the research done so far has focused on cost optimization. The main contribution of the study is two-fold. First, besides cost optimization, we have introduced efficiency optimization within a balanced approach to determine the DRT, under multiple objectives. Second, we used a set-based approach over the hypervolume quality values of solutions rather than population-based Pareto solutions. We proposed a discrete-time simulation model by using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms where the deterioration over the quality values of Pareto solution sets is used as an indicator for a DRT. We supported the proposed mathematical model in theory with empirical findings from a case study for a sustainment-dominated Naval Command and Control System that was designed in 2004 and deployed in 2007. We ran the simulation as for 2007 and conducted an analysis over the cost and operational efficiency objectives to compare the situation experienced in real life against the simulation outputs of the proposed model. The results revealed that not only the total life cycle cost but also efficient operational sustainability of a system would be increased significantly if the system had gone through design refreshes as proposed by the model. We showed that the deterioration of the Pareto optimal solutions' hypervolume quality values over time is an effective marker to decide the optimal DRT under conflicting multiple objectives.

Tackling Optimization and System-Driven Engineering in Coupling Physical Constraints with MBSE: The Case of a Mobile Autonomous Line of Products

“…But the outcome and output of industrial investment does not hold long in an ever-changing context. The product itself has an influence on all contributing systems, and the methods to reach the product line core concepts cannot be assessed in an acceptable timeframe without computer assistance, as shown in [20]. The limits and constraints in real life are imposed by contractual engagement, the inheritance of past projects with reuse of historical investments, which makes a set-based vision at first necessary to make the most resilient decisions.…”