Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

Shi, Feng; Zhao, Sen; Guo, Zhengtang; Goosse, Hugues; Yin, Qiuzhen

doi:10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017

Cited by 64 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…Experiments applying data assimilation based on a particle filter method (Dubinkina et al, ) are performed using a reconstruction of MJJAS precipitation over China for the period 1470–2000 CE (F. Shi et al, ) as a constraint. The model ensemble is derived from the Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM‐LME; Otto‐Bliesner et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have provided evidence for the existence of the monopole mode (F. Shi et al, ; H. Shi et al, ). The monopole was identified as the leading mode using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to a May–September (MJJAS) precipitation variability reconstruction covering China over the past 500 years, based on tree ring data and historical documents (F. Shi et al, ). The EOF main loading is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, as shown in Figure 1a1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Precipitation variability in this region has been explored over both the recent past, using abundant instrumental meteorological data sets (e.g., Webster & Yang, 1992), and the last several millennia (e.g., Cheng et al, 2016;Guo et al, 2002). However, relatively little is known about precipitation variability over the last few centuries (F. Shi et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have provided evidence for the existence of the monopole mode (F. Shi et al, 2017;H. Shi et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Monopole Mode of Precipitation in East Asia Modulated by the South China Sea Over the Last Four Centuries

Shi

Goosse

Klein

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Precipitation in East Asia affects one quarter of the global population. However, the mechanisms governing precipitation changes at the century scale remain unclear. Reconstructions of warm season precipitation over the last 531 years show that the dominant mode of variability is a monopole covering most of China. However, this mode is mostly absent from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 results. In contrast, experiments using data assimilation reproduce this monopole mode well. Results show that sea surface temperature in the South China Sea is a major driver of the monopole mode of precipitation via a Gill-type response. Warm sea surface temperatures induce a distinct baroclinic structure over the central part of eastern China comprising a low-pressure cyclone in the lower troposphere and a high-pressure anticyclone in the upper troposphere with rising airflow, resulting in water vapor convergence and increased precipitation in East Asia.Plain Language Summary Precipitation in East Asia affects more than one billion people.Although recent changes in precipitation depend on latitude, reconstructions based on paleoclimate archives show that over the last four centuries, East Asia has been characterized by a spatially homogeneous change in precipitation. However, this feature is not present in current climate model simulations. Here, we reproduce this monopole pattern using a combination of model results and observational data using a data assimilation approach and identify the physical processes that lead to this pattern. The observed increase in precipitation over China is due to increased water transport and rising air in this region. These atmospheric circulation changes are linked to a heat source at the surface of the South China Sea caused by higher water temperatures. This work demonstrates that the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia over the past four centuries may differ from the current mode. the annual mean (July-June) Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies and the data assimilation-based and proxybased reconstructed MJJAS precipitation indicates a weak north-south dipole ( Figure S18). ConclusionsThe dominant monopole mode of precipitation variability over the period 1470-1849 found in proxybased reconstructions in East Asia is reproduced by combining precipitation data and model results from CESM-LME applying a data assimilation technique based on a particle filter method. The EOF main loading of the monopole mode is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. This suggests that the monopole mode of the precipitation conforms to physical climate laws used by climate models. Based on an atmospheric circulation analysis, the monopole mode of MJJAS precipitation variability over East Asia is linked with warm SST anomalies in the SCS, which leads to a distinct baroclinic structure over the central part of eastern China via a Gill-type response. Correspondingly, local rising airflow, more water vapor convergence, a greater cloud fraction, and more prec...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have provided evidence for the existence of the monopole mode (F. Shi et al, 2017;H. Shi et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Monopole Mode of Precipitation in East Asia Modulated by the South China Sea Over the Last Four Centuries

Shi

Goosse

Klein

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Regular grid points were created by CMA based on observed precipitation data (six stations inside SRYR and more than 15 stations outside) and a Digital Elevation Model from GTOPO30 (Hutchinson, 1998). The dataset has been widely used in climate analysis, numerical model verification, and hydrological studies (Shi et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017). The quality of the dataset has been checked by using cross validation and error analysis by Zhao et al (2014).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated large‐scale circulation impact on rainy season precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River

Berndtsson

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Monthly precipitation data at regular grids of 0.5° × 0.5° derived from observations during June–August 1961–2016 were used to reveal characteristics of large‐scale circulations associated with rainy season precipitation over the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR). The integrated impact of major influencing circulation patterns was examined by principal component analysis and composites. Results showed that the first rainy season precipitation mode associates with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), explaining 64% of spatial and temporal rainy season precipitation variance in the region. Composites of precipitation pattern under different phases of SOI and PDO revealed that the effect of PDO on precipitation varies with the SOI phase. When in phase with the SOI, PDO‐induced precipitation anomalies are magnified. When out‐of‐phase, anomalies weaken or even disappear. Composites of moisture flux patterns show that large‐scale atmospheric circulation affects the strength of westerlies that transport moisture to the study area and formation of convergence. In coming decades, the PDO is likely to continue in a negative phase with La Niña (positive SOI) events, implying more precipitation during the rainy season. Consequently, this knowledge can be used to improve decision making regarding water supply and flood risk management in the SRYR.

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Regional differences in summer monsoon precipitation variability reconstructed from multiple proxies in Asia during the past millennium

Liu

Chen

Zheng

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Rainfall in the Asia summer monsoon (ASM) domain has a complex spatial pattern with the temporal variability at different timescales and their long‐term change has not been fully characterized. An updated 320 multiple proxies network is used to reconstruct the May–October precipitation during the past millennium for eight regions in the ASM domain. The spatial consistency of summer monsoon precipitation variability and the possible links to the internal climate oscillations are investigated. The results show that the regional precipitations over the last millennium in the ASM regions are dominated by the interannual cycle of 2–2.5a and 3.5‐5a, the decadal cycle of ~11a and 15–25a and the multidecadal cycle of ~30a and 40–80a. Coherent dry decades in different regions appear in 1100–1250, 1600–1650 and 1960–2000, while the wet decades appear in 970–990, 1330–1350, 1380–1430, 1550–1580, 1700–1780 and 1810–1910. On interannual scale, the relationships between precipitation for each region and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both developing and decaying stages are unstable over the entire millennium, but they have opposite‐sign correlations most of the time, which implies that the summer precipitation anomaly for a region tends to reverse in the next summer when a strong ENSO event occurs in the winter. For the long‐term change from multidecadal to centennial scales, the longest dry period of the 12th to 13th centuries in eastern Asia coincides with the period with the lowest ENSO variability due to the in phase change of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which could result in the neutral interbasin east–west cell in Tropics and low frequency of ENSO events.

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Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

Cited by 64 publications

References 105 publications

Monopole Mode of Precipitation in East Asia Modulated by the South China Sea Over the Last Four Centuries

Monopole Mode of Precipitation in East Asia Modulated by the South China Sea Over the Last Four Centuries

Integrated large‐scale circulation impact on rainy season precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River

Regional differences in summer monsoon precipitation variability reconstructed from multiple proxies in Asia during the past millennium

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