Multi‐scale evaluation of a linear model of orographic precipitation over Sierra de Guadarrama (Iberian Central System)

Abstract

A linear model of orographic precipitation is validated at Sierra de Guadarrama (Iberian Central System) using ERA-Interim as input and a historical set of precipitation data. It is the first time that a linear precipitation model is tested in a semi-arid region like this. The historical precipitation data come from three high-quality observatories located at the south, north and top of the mountain range. Different timescales ranging from daily, monthly and annual precipitation are analysed. Phenomena not generally taken into account in linear models like a sub-saturated air condition and topographic mesoscale flow blocking are included in the modelling. Model results show a good agreement with observations at annual and monthly scales. The model reproduces well the high inter-annual variability and the annual cycle, including the pronounced summer drought. Bigger differences between observed and modelled precipitations are found for some winter months and for May. Winter overestimation is attributed to measurement undersampling during snowy conditions. The underestimation in May is likely related to thermally driven convective precipitation, which is not modelled. Results also show how orographic precipitation is an important contributor to total precipitation in this area. The high-resolution precipitation fields obtained can be used in the future for precipitation assessment and other hydrological applications. Modelled time series can also be very helpful for completing and validating the precipitation observations for the winter months.

Assessing the Use of Satellite-Based Estimates and High-Resolution Precipitation Datasets for the Study of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Iberian Peninsula

“…It is believed that, unless an event strictly peaks during the time lag, the defined accumulation period is robust and no artificial features are found at the border between the two countries. Other studies made use of precipitation data from IB02 for real case study analysis [10,37] and for more extensive assessments [39][40][41].…”

Characterising Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Winter Precipitation and Snow Accumulation in a Mountain Range in the Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama)

“…This and previous works gave a good description of the temporal variability of precipitation but lacked information about the spatial variability of the precipitation, which was expected to be high due to complex orography but was not able to capture due to the lack of enough observatories. This issue was partly solved by [16], who performed a high-resolution modelization of precipitation at SdG for a 20 years period. Here, the complexity of the spatial patterns was confirmed, differences between basins were found, and the leading role of orographic precipitation processes was determined.…”

The Peñalara Mountain Meteorological Network (1999–2014): Description, Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

“…Future users of this database might have to use other techniques, like modeling, for completing the observations. In order to give an estimation of the potential use of models for completing these data sets and also to give an order of magnitude of the missed precipitation, Figure 15 shows the results of a Linear Orographic Model [76] applied to this region [48]. This Figure shows an estimation of the climographs for each site and for each available period.…”

“…Precipitation occurs mainly due to large and synoptic scale precipitation phenomena but with a marked orographic enhancement [15]. In recent years, this area has been subject to numerous scientific and multidisciplinary studies, such as in geomorphology [16][17][18][19][20], limnology [21][22][23], ecology [24], zoology [25][26][27][28], botanics [29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40] and meteorology and climate [7,14,15,18,[41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48].…”