Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

Abstract

The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5-10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi 11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene(last12,000years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium known as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the seventeen 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900-1920 and 1960-1980, the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005, and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar grand minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. The demonstrated geometrical synchronicity between solar and climate data patterns with the proposed solar/planetary harmonic model rebuts a major critique (by Smythe and Eddy, 1977) of the theory of planetary tidal influence on the Sun. Other qualitative discussions are added about the plausibility of a planetary influence on solar activity.Keywords: Planetary theory of solar variation; Coupling between planetary tidal forcing and solar dynamo cycle; Reconstruction and forecast of solar and climate dynamics during the Holocene; Harmonic mo...

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

“…: Abreu et al 2012;Charbonneau 2013;Scafetta 2012b,c;Scafetta and Willson 2013a). The planetary models proposed by Scafetta (2012b) and Scafetta and Willson (2013a) shows a quasi 60-year modulation of solar activity since 1850 with peaks in the 1880s, 1940s and 2000s. Thus, it shows good agreement with the ACRIM composite's upward trending from about 1980 to 2000.…”

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future

“…Ice core analysis suggests a shorter AMO quasi-periodicity (about 20 years) during the Little Ice Age and a longer periodicity in the Medieval Warm Period (Chylek et al 2012). Atmosphere-Ocean coupled climate models (Metha and Delworth 1995;Griffies and Bryan 1997;Delworth and Knutson 2000;Dong and Sutton 2001;Wei and Lohmann 2012;Mahajan et al 2011;Henriksson et al 2012;Yang et al 2013;Escudier et al 2013;Zanchettin et al 2013) as well as simplified conceptual ocean models (Frankcombe and Djikstra 2011), or statistical harmonic models (Humlum et al 2011;Mazzarella and Scafetta 2012;Scafetta 2012) suggest a future persistent AMO like multi-decadal oscillation. Based on this evidence of the past behavior we expect the AMO to retain its cyclic behavior during the twenty-first century with a cycle length of 60-70 years.…”

Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle

“…The 11-year solar cycle is also in phase with major tidal resonances generated by Venus-Earth-Jupiter system (11.07-year period) and by Mercury-Venus system (11.08-year period) (Scafetta, 2012d). The multi-decadal, secular and millennial solar oscillations appear to be generated by beat interferences among the multiple cycles that comprise the 11-year solar cycles (Scafetta, 2012c).…”

“…For example, the 11-year solar cycle appears to be bounded by the Jupiter-Saturn spring tide oscillation period (9.93 year) and the Jupiter orbital tide oscillation period (11.86 year) (Scafetta, 2012c). The 11-year solar cycle is also in phase with major tidal resonances generated by Venus-Earth-Jupiter system (11.07-year period) and by Mercury-Venus system (11.08-year period) (Scafetta, 2012d).…”