Multi-scenario research on the low-carbon transition in energy-deficient cities-view from the power supply side

Abstract

Cities are the places where power supply demand is highly concentrated. How to ensure power supply security while realizing low-carbon transition is the key challenge faced by the construction of new power systems. In large cities with a shortage of local power generation resources, this problem is particularly prominent. The study takes Guangzhou city as a case study area, which has the typical characteristics of “serious energy shortage and extremely high-power load density” in China. This study explores the differences in power supply capacity, structure, carbon emissions, and power supply costs under the six different scenarios set up from the power supply side for future power supply structures. The optimal power supply modes have been matched for cities with different development characteristics and needs. The change in power supply structure and the realization path under the optimal power supply modes are discussed. The results show that the power supply capacity of Guangzhou is constantly improving under different scenarios, with the highest self-sufficiency rates of power production capacity and power production quantity reaching 80% and 50%, respectively, by 2030. Despite this, Guangzhou still does not have the basic conditions for building a new power supply system through the development of local high-proportion renewable energy only due to the limitation of resource endowment. The combination with increasing the ratio of renewable energy in outsourcing power is an inevitable choice for low-carbon transition for the city. This study provides a new idea on how to build a new power supply system for an energy shortage city. It can be used as a reference for safe power supply and low-carbon transition for the power supply sectors of other cities.