Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and human activities enhanced threats to the degradation of various ecosystem services in modern urban agglomerations. This study explored the response of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to land use changes and the trade-offs among various ESVs in urban agglomerations under different future development scenarios. The patch-general land use simulation (PLUS) model and ESV calculation method were used to simulate the ESVs of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration under the Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Ecological Conservation scenario (EC), and Economic Development scenario (ED) in 2030. Global and local Moran’s I were used to detect the spatial distribution pattern, and correlation analysis was used to measure trade-offs among ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The simulated result of land use in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration showed high accuracy compared to the actual observed result of the same period, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.912. From 2000 to 2030, land use changes were significant, with the rapid decrease in farmland and an increase in construction land. The area of woodland increased significantly under the EC scenario, and the area of construction land increased rapidly under the ED scenario. (2) The decline of total ESV was CNY 218 million from 2000 to 2020, and ESVs remained the downward trend in the BAU and ED scenarios compared to 2020, decreasing by CNY 156 million and CNY 4731 million, respectively. An increasing trend of ESV showed under the EC scenario, with a growth of CNY 849 million. (3) Significant spatial autocorrelation showed in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, as the Global Moran’s I were all positive and the p-values were zero. The ESV grids mainly showed “High-High” clusters in the mountainous areas and “Low-Low” clusters in plain areas. Except for food production, a majority of ecosystem services exhibited positive synergistic relationships. In future planning and development, policymakers should focus on the coordinated development of the urbanization process and ecological preservation to build an ecological safety pattern.

Spatio-Temporal Urban Land Green Use Efficiency under Carbon Emission Constraints in the Yellow River Basin, China

“…Spatial auto-correlation is an important indicator to test the correlated significance of the attribute value of an index with the attribute value of its adjacent space [78]. The Global Moran's index reflects the correlation of attribute values of adjacent spatial units of the whole area.…”

Spatiotemporal of the Coupling Relationship between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration

“…The implementation of the national food security strategy and targeted poverty alleviation strategy proposed at the 2013 Central Rural Work Conference has greatly increased humans' income and improved farmland protection. In addition, Yang Ke et al found that although the annual average PM2.5 concentration in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration showed an overall downward trend from 2015 to 2019, it still exceeded China's air quality Level II (35 µg/m 3 ) [43]. Therefore, human well-being recovered from 2015 to 2018 but did not reach its initial level.…”

A Multi-Scenario Land Expansion Simulation Method from Ecosystem Services Perspective of Coastal Urban Agglomeration: A Case Study of GHM-GBA, China

“…In this study, the patch-level land use simulation model (PLUS) of the integrated development type was used to simulate urban land expansion. Compared with other urban land expansion simulation models, the PLUS model integrates a CA based on multi-type random patch seeds (CARS), the land expansion rule mining framework (LEAS), and a multi-type stochastic seed mechanism, which obtain more accurate patch-level land use type simulation results, especially for natural land use types, such as woodland and grassland [16,35]. The spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of land use, ESVs, and the coupling relationship between them were quantified.…”

“…In recent years, scholars have achieved a series of productive results in the study of ES and LULC [15]. At the research scale, the relationship between land use and ES in watersheds, coastal wetlands, water-bearing lands, and urbanized areas has been explored [16,17]. In terms of research Land 2022, 11,1934 3 of 23 content, ES is used as a basis for constructing ecological resistance surfaces, ecological safety patterns, and ecological health patterns and for predicting urban land expansion processes.…”