Multi-Source Data Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Winter Wheat Yield in China from 2000 to 2015

Abstract

<jats:p>Yield gridded datasets are essential for agricultural land management, food security and harmonious human–land relationships. Many studies have developed yield spatialization models that are based on cropland areas. However, crop planting areas, phenological dates, and net primary production (NPP) have received minimal attention. This study proposes a novel method to simulate winter wheat yields in China from 2000 to 2015 using crop phenological datasets, phenological observations, and NPP. The results showed that the NPP in the growing season and statistical yield showed a significant positive correlation (R2 = 0.93, p &lt; 0.01). The mean prediction error of the gridded yield dataset was 12.01%. The relative errors of the gridded yield dataset for approximately half of the samples were between −10% and 10%. Furthermore, the yield distribution was high in the east and low in the west. The high yield was primarily concentrated in the North China Plain, while low yield was observed in eastern Gansu, central Shanxi, southern Hebei, and eastern Sichuan. From 2000 to 2015, the yield mainly showed an increasing trend in the study area, with the average rate of 0.17 t ha−1 yr−1, especially in the North China Plain. This study suggests that NPP is a key indicator to evaluate the yield of winter wheat. Furthermore, this method can be used to generate gridded yield maps along with providing credible and fundamental data for climate change and sustainable agricultural development.</jats:p>

Impacts of climate change on winter wheat net primary production: the regulatory role of crop management

“…In general, winter wheat ANPP decreased from south to north, corroborating the findings of Han et al 51 . Hydrothermal resources are the main driver of ecosystem carbon cycling, 5 which is more efficient in the south than in the north of the 3HP, leading to differences in the selection of winter wheat varieties.…”

“…In general, winter wheat ANPP decreased from south to north, corroborating the findings of Han et al 51 Hydrothermal resources are the main driver of ecosystem carbon cycling, 5 which is more efficient in the south than in the north of the 3HP, leading to differences in the selection of winter wheat varieties. In the southern 3HP, farmers prefer higher yielding varieties, whereas those in the northern 3HP prefer varieties that are more tolerant to cold and drought.…”

Assessing the impacts of rural residential land and cropland transition on agricultural production in Northeast China

“…The results presented in Section 3.3.1 indicate that productivity of the reclaimed RRL was lower than that of the traditional cropland, indicating a clear gap between the two (Figure 6). It should notice that crop productivity varies with crop type, space and time (Han et al, 2020). For NEC, there are three major crops, including rice, maize and soybean, whose area together accounted for approximately 80% of NEC's cultivated area.…”

“…The rare studies on the impacts on production are just focused on project areas (Jin et al, 2017). Cropland productivity relates with natural conditions, management level and technique progress, varying over space and time (Chisanga et al, 2020; Han et al, 2020; Ye et al, 2021). The understanding of the impacts on cropland amount is not enough to reveal its impacts on production capacity and further food security.…”