Multiattribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Management

Hämäläinen, Raimo P.; Lindstedt, M.; Sinkko, K.

doi:10.1111/0272-4332.204044

Cited by 96 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The overview of application of these methods to evaluation and aggregation judgement measures for performance comparison of nuclear energy systems can be found in [28,[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. Methods' parameters were selected in accordance with recommendations discussed in [29].…”

Section: Comparison Of Ranking Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Schwenk-Ferrero

Андрианов

2017

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

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The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions). Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact). The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a "small" newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future. Application ContextFrom a formal point of view, the decision problem formulation is a triplet consisting of (1) a set of potential alternatives which describe the possible actions that a decision-maker can undertake, (2) a set of points of view under which the potential actions are analyzed, evaluated, and compared, including different scenarios for the future, and (3) the problem statement. This section describes the problem application context.It should be noted that assessment of the technical performance and safety of repository sites is a very complex R&D problem. Therefore, the technical aspects of "repository" options will be only reviewed and briefly discussed within the confines of the paper. General criteria and metrics (indicators) which are in this case rather dynamic (time frame-dependent), are, however, addressed.In practice, the extent of R&D efforts is dependent on specific national conditions, for instance, available geological formations (rock medium) for final HLW disposal in a country and appropriate assessment of characteristics of nuclear waste that is necessary for designing a HLW repository. Thus the technology-holding countries have already established expert organizations responsible for final high-level waste disposal and conducting R&D activities on safety assessment studies, on minimization of the impact on the environment, and on site robustness tests (predictable performance response in the face of uncertainties).In order to construct an objective hierarchy tree, IAEA basic principles are therefore used. These principles for nuclear waste management st...

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Section: Comparison Of Ranking Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Schwenk-Ferrero

Андрианов

2017

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

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“…Currently, this method is increasingly used in many fields of science, as well as in the implementation of practical tasks. The most common application is for forecasting and planning in engineering, real estate management, economics, and administration and management, at the local as well as central levels (Saaty 1980;Saaty 2000;Hamalainen et. al.…”

Section: The Area and Methods Of Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Spatial Information Systems in Decision-Making Processes Regarding Investment Site Selection

Siejka

2017

Real Estate Management and Valuation

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One of the main tasks of real estate management is making decisions concerning the location of investments. Taking into consideration the fact that any investment affects, directly or indirectly, the economic development of a commune, it has a significant impact on the local real estate market. Investments that have a negative impact on the environment can contribute to a reduction in the activity of the local real estate market. Upon performing tasks related to the economic development of a region and to an increase in the inhabitants' quality of life, the activity of the local real estate market increases. The paper presents the role of spatial information systems as a source of data used in decision-making processes related to local investment site selection.Currently, there are spatial information systems functioning as a platform for multi-level information systems on real estate and GIS, on local, regional, national and international markets. In this way, the resources of spatial information are available to all institutions, natural and legal persons. As a result, the acquisition of a series of data can take place at any time and at no cost.

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“…Indeed, research output into risk management (including risk management around natural and other disasters) in a multicriteria framework has increased considerably in recent years. Some examples include [21], who used a multi-attribute utility model to select a value-focused strategy for reducing risk and protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident; reference [22] described the role and use of multicriteria analysis in complex environmental impact assessment and decision making; reference [23] developed an electricity planning model dealing with uncertainty and its associated risk by minimizing environmental risk through a multiple-criteria model and performing a risk analysis, which applies decision rules for selecting the best planning strategy under uncertainty; reference [24] developed a methodology that combined the quantifiable conventional approach to risk (likelihood and consequence), the analysis of perceived risk based on stakeholders' judgments and an analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis into a decision framework for risk assessment and applied this to a case of flood risk management; and reference [25] developed a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA) model to compare the risk of ecological damage associated with various forest management systems, each with a different management intensity.…”

Section: Decision Making Regarding Disaster Risk Mitigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

Honert¹

2016

Resources

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Economic losses from natural disasters pose significant challenges to communities and to the insurance industry. Natural disaster mitigation aims to reduce the threat to people and assets from natural perils. Good decisions relating to hazard risk mitigation require judgments both about the scientific and financial issues involved, i.e., the efficacy of some intervention, and the ethical or value principles to adopt in allocating resources. A framework for selecting a set of mitigation options within a limited budget is developed. Project selection about natural disaster mitigation options needs to trade off benefits offered by alternative investments (e.g., fatalities and injuries avoided, potential property and infrastructure losses prevented, safety concerns of citizens, etc.) against the costs of investment. Such costs include capital and on-going operational costs, as well as intangible costs, such as the impact of the project on the visual landscape or the loss of societal cohesion in the event of the relocation of part of a community. Furthermore, dollar costs of any potential project will need to be defined within some prescribed budget and time frame. Taking all of these factors into account, this paper develops a framework for good natural hazard mitigation decision making and selection.

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Multiattribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Management

Cited by 96 publications

References 29 publications

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

The Role of Spatial Information Systems in Decision-Making Processes Regarding Investment Site Selection

Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia—A Framework

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