Multifield Analog Prediction of Short-Term Climate Fluctuations Using a Climate State vector

Barnett, T. P.; Preisendorfer, Rudolph W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<1771:mapost>2.0.co;2

Cited by 124 publications

(72 citation statements)

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“…2, the predictability of the first component directly infers the significant predictability of the summer temperature in the midwestern United States. It agrees with the region of maximum skill score for the prediction of the summer surface temperature anomaly fields by Barnett and Preisendorfer (1978) based on several data fields. The interannual variations of the first component of the North American summer temperature and SST at 40*N, 170*W in April are compared in Fig.…”

Section: Antecedent North Pacific Ocean Surface Conditionssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…Walsh and Richman (1981) investigated the seasonal dependence of coupling between the surface temperature anomalies over the United States and the North Pacific Ocean. Barnett (1981) also examined the predictability of North American seasonal temperatures with the antecedent oceanic parameters. The results obtained from these statistical studies generally show the lowest predictability for the summer season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Principal Components of the North American Summer Temperature Field and the Antecedent Oceanic and Atmospheric Conditions

Park

Kung

1988

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The first two principal components of the North American summer temperature field are examined in reference to the antecedent oceanic and atmospheric conditions of the Northern Hemisphere, and are shown to have considerable prognostic value. The planetary scale circulation associated with the thermal field over the western tropical Pacific and the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the central North Pacific-Aleutian region appear to be important in determining the summer surface temperature pattern over North America.The examination of the cross-correlation patterns and their temporal variations indicates that the anomalous SST fields in the North Pacific in the preceding seasons are closely related to the temperature field in North America in the following summer. The negative anomalous departures in the central North Pacific SST precede the high first component of the North America summer temperature field, and the positive departures precede the low first component. For the dominance of the first component in the mid-western United States, this directly infers the predictability of the summer temperature in the region. The signal of anomalous SST departures appears early in the preceding fall, reaches its maximum in the winter and spring, and diminishes toward the summer. An El Nino mode is also detected for the North American summer temperature, indicating the impact of ENSO on the general circulation beyond the winter half of the year.

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Section: Antecedent North Pacific Ocean Surface Conditionssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principal Components of the North American Summer Temperature Field and the Antecedent Oceanic and Atmospheric Conditions

Park

Kung

1988

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…One drawback in the context of studying extremes is that this method does not produce new values, and hence is not appropriate for risk assessment, in which one needs to extrapolate the data set outside the recorded set of values. This analog method has been successfully used, however, in numerous prediction studies (Barnett and Preisendorfer, 1978;Zorita and von Storch, 1998;Wetterhall et al, 2005;Bliefernicht and Bàrdossy, 2007).…”

Section: Downscaling Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

Ghil

Yiou

Hallegatte

et al. 2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

235

167

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Abstract. We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction.Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

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“…where x is the spatial coordinate, E is the v-th eigenfunction of the correlav tion matrix, in decreasing order of the associated eigenvalues X [see Table 4 in Mo and Ghil, 1987, and Table 1 here], A is the corresponding principal component [PC], and u is the truncation of the EOF expansion selected for smoothing purposes [Barnett and Preisendorfer, 1978]. The pattern correlation between <J>(x, t ) and <j>(x, t ), so truncated, is then given aŝ m ~ n v o…”

Section: Cluster Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

Mo¹,

Ghil²

1988

J. Geophys. Res.

184

141

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Abstract.A modified cluster analysis method has been developed to identify spatial patterns of planetary flow regimes, and to study transitions between them. This method has been applied first to a simple deterministic model and second to Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500 rob data. For the NH data, cluster analysis was carried out in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters are /*• found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, and transient clusters the band-pass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days.In the low-frequency band three pairs of clustgers determine, respectively, j£.EOFs 1, 2 and 3. They exhibit well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and wave trains. Both model and lowpass data show strong bimodality.Clusters in the band-pass window show wave-train patterns in the two jet exit regions.They are related, as in the model, to transitions between stationary clusters.-3-It is well known that certain large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns persist for time intervals longer than those typical of midlatitude cyclones [Baur, 1947; Namias, 19823. A few of these patterns also have a tendency to recur from time to time. To identify the patterns which tend to both recur and persist, as well as determine preferred transitions between them, can deepen our knowledge of low-frequency atmospheric variability and enhance our skill in long-range forecasting (LRF).Recurrent and persistent patterns can be global, hemispheric or regional.>v Certain patterns associated with specific phases of the El Nino/SouthernOscillation are known to be global [Rasmusson and Wallace, 19831. Most blocking episodes, in both the northern and the southern hemispheres, are regional in character [Dole, 1986;Dole and Gordon, 1983; Trenberth and Ho, 19853. Typical of hemispheric patterns are those associated with the dominance of zonal wavenumbers three or four in the Southern Hemisphere [Mo, 1986; Mo and Ghil, 1987].In this article, we shall concentrate on recurrent and persistent patterns of hemispheric extent, associated with the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics. These patterns will be studied first in the solutions of a greatly simplified dynamical model, and then in an atmospheric data set.One way to identify hemispheric patterns which persist is the pattern correlation method (PCM). A sequence of daily hemispheric weather maps is defined to constitute a persistent or quasi-stationary (QS) event, if the spatial correlation between any pair of maps within the sequence exceeds a given threshold p , say p = O.S, and if the duration of the event so defined also exceeds a given threshold. Based on the ensemble-mean decorrelation time -4-of daily weather maps, typical duration thresholds for QS events are seven days in the Northern, and five days in the Southern Hemisphere.Using this criterion, Horel C198Sa] identified 58 OS events in a set of NH winter data. These events were not easy to classify su...

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Multifield Analog Prediction of Short-Term Climate Fluctuations Using a Climate State vector

Cited by 124 publications

References 0 publications

Principal Components of the North American Summer Temperature Field and the Antecedent Oceanic and Atmospheric Conditions

Principal Components of the North American Summer Temperature Field and the Antecedent Oceanic and Atmospheric Conditions

Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

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