It has been almost 15 years since the first microarray-based studies creating multigene biomarkers to subtype and predict survival of cancer patients. This Perspective looks at why only a handful of genomic biomarkers have reached clinical application and what advances are needed over the next 15 years to grow this number. I discuss challenges in creating biomarkers and reproducing them at the genomic and computational levels, including the problem of spatio-genomic heterogeneity in an individual cancer. I then outline the challenges in translating newly discovered genome-wide or regional events, like trinucleotide mutation signatures, kataegis, and chromothripsis, into biomarkers, as well as the importance of incorporating prior biological knowledge. Lastly, I outline the practical problems of pharmaco-economics and adoption: Are new biomarkers viewed as economically rational by potential funders? And if they are, how can their results be communicated effectively to patients and their clinicians? Genomic-based diagnostics have immense potential for transforming the management of cancer. The next 15 years will see a surge of research into the topics here that, when combined with a stream of new targeted therapies being developed, will personalize the cancer clinic.
The potential of clinical cancer genomicsCancer is, at its heart, a disease of the genome. Individual tumors harbor from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of point mutations . They can have global ploidy changes or local chromosomal abnormalities that alter as much as 50% of the genome (Zack et al. 2013). They can have dozens of genomic rearrangements of various types (Yang et al. 2013). Large-scale sequencing projects like the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) have been sequencing hundreds of tumors of different subtypes to try to create catalogs of those that are recurrent in any given cancer type (The Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network 2008;Hudson et al. 2010). These studies have led to the discovery of fundamental new properties of cancer genomes, such as mutational signatures (Alexandrov et al. 2013a,b), focal genomic abnormalities like kataegis and chromothripsis (Stephens et al. 2011), robust estimates of the distribution and number of driver genes (Lawrence et al. 2014), and classification of many tumor types into distinct subtypes (The Cancer Genome Atlas Network 2012a.However, these discoveries by themselves are not sufficient to impact patient care. Rather, bringing cancer genomics into the clinic requires two separate and generally orthogonal arms. First, genomic profiles need to be mined to identify candidate genes that can be targeted by novel drugs. By targeting vulnerabilities present in a tumor and not in normal cells, it is believed that drugs can be developed with greater specificity and sensitivity. Second, genomic profiles need to be used to create novel biomarkers that can be used to diagnose disease, to predict patient survival, to predict response to treatment (e.g., companion di...