Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century

“…Thus, the phenomenon above could be attributed to the difference in convective parameterization and land sur- face parameterizations, as well as parameterizations over the ocean between GCMs and RCMs. On the other hand, the discrepancies between the RCMs and the driving GCM indicate that the RCM projections are sensitive to local and regional processes and the corresponding methods incorporated in the model (Diallo et al, 2012;Saini et al, 2015).…”

Section: Change In Seasonal Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Yang

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated and used to project future regional climate change in China. The influences of model uncertainty and internal variability on projections are also identified. The RCMs simulate the historical climate and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China, including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwestern China, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results show that (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation and that a multimodel ensemble (MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs are confirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature during the historical period. (2) For future (2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049) climate, the MME indicates consistent warming trends at around 1 • C in the entire domain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. The annual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region, except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change in annual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with the results from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a larger magnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals for projected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the driving GCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises from the internal variability over northern and southern China and the model uncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected mean precipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variability over most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the model uncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases with prediction lead time across all subregions.

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“…In addition, the typical grid box of GCMs (in the range of 100-400 km) is too coarse to account for land surface heterogeneities from vegetation, topography and coastlines, which are important for the physical response governing the local and regional climate change signal (Paeth et al 2006;Rummukainen 2010). Regional Climate Models (RCM) can potentially overcome this limitation; however, Diallo et al (2012) found mixed results in terms of RCMs improving the simulation of climate patterns compared to the driving GCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydro-climatic changes in the Niger basin and consistency of local perceptions

et al. 2014

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Since the 1970s, the Niger basin has been characterized by hydro-climatic changes which have significant impacts on local populations. These changes are not well documented as a result of a decreasing observation network for hydro-climatic data. Indigenous peoples' knowledge has increasingly been considered an important component in addressing these data gaps. We evaluated the consistency of indigenous perceptions and adaptive responses with rainfall and river discharge observations in the Niger basin. Socioeconomic data were collected from 239 households in 30 communities across two settlements in the Niger basin. Data on historical rainfall and river discharge from 1950 to 2010 were analyzed and the consistency with local perceptions was assessed. Generally, there was a high agreement between observations and perceptions, but impacts of climate change in the communities were dependent on social and environmental factors that can introduce differences in perception despite identical observations. Indigenous perceptions gave good indication of the most vulnerable sectors as well as communities who also displayed the greatest willingness to combat climate change. These results suggest that integration of indigenous perceptions into climate change science, especially in data scarce regions, is highly valuable.

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Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century

Cited by 156 publications

References 49 publications

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia

Hydro-climatic changes in the Niger basin and consistency of local perceptions

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