Multiobjective Risk/Cost Analysis of Artificial Marine Systems Using Decision Trees and Fuzzy Expert Estimations

Abstract

This study is devoted to the analysis of Artificial Marine Systems (AMS) and their optimisation with emphasis on their role of mitigating anthropogenic and technological threats to the environment. Historically, AMS were created and used to enhance fishing catches, protect coastal zones and maintain biodiversity. In recent years, great strides have been made in the understanding of AMS as multifunctional tools to study, monitor and even influence the global warming processes. In fact AMS can serve as global bio-filters and controllable sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the long run mitigating global warming and enhancing sustainable preservation of marine resources. A fuzzy expert system based on the Mamdani-Sugeno modus operandi has been designed, enabling a risk/cost/benefit analysis to be performed, environmental risk to be minimised, and the optimal structure of an AMS (location, cost, size, geometrical forms, etc.) to be found. Special attention is given to the protection of the coral reef in the Eilat-Aqaba Gulf in the Red Sea.

Fuzzy Consensus Qualitative Risk Analysis Framework for Real Estate Projects

“…It is a very subjective method. Decision Trees Dey (2002); Sherali et al 2011; and Levner et al (2007).…”

“…Another technique is the use of decision trees in analyzing risks (Dey 2002;Sherali et al 2008;Levner et al 2007). Dey (2002) studied project risk management using a hybrid analytic hierarchical process and decision tree analysis, yet the research study was limited to the data collection stage and it did not incorporate the qualification of experts in aggregating their decisions.…”

Modeling Risks in Real Estate Development Projects: A Case for Egypt

“…Modified horizontal approach with interpolation technique was used to develop membership function (MF). Process of developing MF of input and output variables determines shapes of MF for both input and output variables using modified horizontal approach (Hauptmanns, 1988;Kangari & Riggs, 1989;Khan & Abbasi, 1999;Javid & Seneviratne, 2000;Maria-Sanchez, 2005;Levner et al, 2007;Markowski, Mannan, & Bigoszewska, 2009;Marsh & Fayek, 2010, Elbarkouky & Fayek, 2011. Detailed process of constructing membership functions using modified horizontal approach with interpolation is explained in Aboushady (2012).…”

“…Several techniques have been adopted to perform quantitative analysis including; decision trees, neural networks, Monte Carlo Simulation, and fuzzy logic. Levner, Ganoulis, Linlov, and Benayahu (2007) studied multi objective assessment of risks for artificial marine system using fuzzy decision trees estimation. However, it is should be mentioned here that decision trees are incapable of computing accurate probability values unless historical data exist, which is not available in our case at hand.…”

An Approach for Optimal Allocation of Safety Resources: Using the Knapsack Problem to Take Aggregated Cost‐Efficient Preventive Measures

“…Financial losses linked to accident consequences may be estimated through direct and indirect costs that might occur due to the risk. (12,13) Readers interested in risk matrix configurations are referred to Greenberg and Cramer, (1) CCPS, (2) Moses and Malone, (14) Cook, (6) Levner et al, (15) and Smith et al (9) Fig. 1 illustrates the risk matrix used in the remain of this article.…”