2015
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00813.1
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Multiple Equilibria as a Possible Mechanism for Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract: Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subp… Show more

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Cited by 13 publications
(12 citation statements)
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References 82 publications
(95 reference statements)
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“…Random variability inherent to the seasonal climate may mask the drought signal. Moreover, establishing a link between the subpolar gyre circulation anomalies and Scandinavian droughts in the instrumental data is further hampered by a general inconsistency between the ocean reanalysis data products for the subpolar gyre region prior to the 1980s (Born et al, 2015). However, our results demonstrate some agreement with observational data-based studies.…”
Section: R2 and R3supporting
confidence: 62%
“…Random variability inherent to the seasonal climate may mask the drought signal. Moreover, establishing a link between the subpolar gyre circulation anomalies and Scandinavian droughts in the instrumental data is further hampered by a general inconsistency between the ocean reanalysis data products for the subpolar gyre region prior to the 1980s (Born et al, 2015). However, our results demonstrate some agreement with observational data-based studies.…”
Section: R2 and R3supporting
confidence: 62%
“…Before this year, observations of the deep ocean are subject to large uncertainties that affect the reliability of assimilation in regions of key importance for the AMOC like the Gulf Stream Extension or the Labrador Sea (Turpin et al 2016). This loss of reliability is in line with the reported lack of consistency among ocean reanalyses regarding the temperature evolution below 500 m (Ray et al 2015), the AMOC (Karspeck et al 2015) and the subpolar gyre (Born et al 2015). These limitations are a strong motivation to use surface restoring, for which quality records extend further back in time.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 69%
“…This suggests that given the appropriate background climate, such as MIS3 during the last glacial period, a small change in ocean circulation and heat transport into the Nordic seas could have large consequences for the Nordic seas and surrounding climate. This oceanic change could involve larger-scale changes to, for example, the AMOC or more local changes to, for example, the horizontal circulation and the subpolar gyre, which are seen to have large effects on the heat transport into the Nordic seas (Boccaletti et al 2005;HátĂşn et al 2005). For the 4DEG experiment, transient changes in sea ice are even present without a change in the incoming Atlantic water, suggesting that large sea ice variability could also be intrinsic to an intermediate climate state.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…If AMOC weakened, it could lead to a reinforcement of the sea ice cover as a reduced AMOC is associated with a smaller heat transport into the Nordic seas. However, the heat transport by the subpolar gyre could compensate, or also be affected by the sea ice cover resulting from, for example, wind or density changes (Born and Levermann 2010;Born et al 2015).…”
Section: A Limitations Of the Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%