Multiple input control strategies for robust and adaptive climate engineering in a low-order 3-box model

Abstract

A low order three-box energy balance model for the climate system is employed with a multivariable control scheme for the evaluation of new robust and adaptive climate engineering strategies using solar radiation management. The climate engineering measures are deployed in 3 boxes thus representing northern, southern and central bands. It is shown that, through heat transport between the boxes, it is possible to effect a degree of latitudinal control through the reduction of insolation. The approach employed consists of a closed-loop system with an adaptive controller, where the required control intervention is estimated under the RCP 4.5 radiative scenario. Through the on-line estimation of the controller parameters, adaptive control can overcome key-issues related to uncertainties of the climate model, the external radiative forcing and the dynamics of the actuator used. In fact, the use of adaptive control offers a robust means of dealing with unforeseeable abrupt perturbations, as well as the parametrisation of the model considered, to counteract the RCP 4.5 scenario, while still providing bounds on stability and control performance. Moreover, applying multivariable control theory also allows the formal controllability and observability of the system to be investigated in order to identify all feasible control strategies.