Multiple scenario approach and strategic behaviour in European companies

Abstract

Nowadays, scenarios are a popular subject in management literature. However, information available about how extensively scenarios are used and the possible motives for their use, as well as their effects on strategic behaviour in companies, has hitherto been very limited. Results of a survey among Fortune's top 1000 companies in the U.S.A. in 1977 and 1981 showed a growing corporate interest in scenarios. A survey of the use of scenarios in large Western European companies in 1981 provided evidence of similar interest in Europe. In this article, results of the European survey are presented and the differences between user and non‐user attitudes towards the future among European firms analysed and the implications for strategic behaviour outlined.

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

“…Studies of European companies by Malaska [24], Malaska et al [25] and Meristo [29] clearly indicates that in Europe: † scenario planning was not widely used until after the first oil crises in 1973, following which the number of 'adopters' of scenario planning almost doubled; and † there was a further surge of adoption in the period between 1976 and 1978. This led Malaska et al to conclude that the adoption of scenario planning 'is associated with the increasing unpredictability of the corporate environment that took place in the 1970s'.…”

Scenario planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurement

“…To develop hypotheses related to the dimensions of scenario planning, we first conducted an extensive review of the conceptual and theoretical literature on scenario planning and strategic foresight (e.g., Bootz, 2010;Bradfield et al, 2005;Bunn & Salo, 1983;Chermack, 2004Chermack, , 2005Chermack, Lynham, & Van der Merwe, 2006;Chermack & Van der Merwe, 2003, Chermack, Van der Merwe, & Lynham, 2007Haeffner et al, 2012;Korte & Chermack, 2007;Malaska, 1985;Malaska, Malmivirta, Meristo, & Hansen, 1984;Phelps et al, 2001;Schoemaker, 1993;Wright, Bradfield, & Cairns, 2013;Wright, Cairns, & Goodwin, 2009). Moreover, we analyzed different approaches to scenario planning, such as intuitive logics, probabilistic modified trends analysis (Bradfield et al, 2005), and the French school of "la prospective" (Godet, 1990).…”

Marketing Planning for Improved Performance: A Comparative Analysis

“…In the wake of a 1981 survey of the top Fortune Malaska (1985) delineates the differences between attitudes of scenario users and non-users toward the future, as well as implications for strategic behaviour. There appears to be a general agreement among researchers that written, formal procedures as part of a control strategy are more appropriate in stable environments than in uncertain environments (Child 1972).…”