Multiple System Estimation using Covariates having Missing Values and Measurement Error: Estimating the Size of the Māori Population in New Zealand

Heijden, P.G.M. van der; Cruyff, Maarten; Smith, Paul A.; Bycroft, Christine; Graham, Patrick; Matheson-Dunning, Nathaniel

doi:10.1111/rssa.12731

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Here we have ignored any uncertainty in MuSEs due to the prediction of Indigenous status. Notice that Zwane and van der Heijden (2007) and Van der Heijden et al (2022) use other methods for dealing with such missing classification variables in the context of MuSE, albeit without the other problems also present here such as false negative linkage and erroneous Spine records.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Statistics Estonia (Tiit and Maasing 2016) and Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (2019) derive residency scores for an Extended Population Register. Van der Heijden et al (2022) use four registers to estimate the Māori population in New Zealand. Central Statistical Office of Ireland (Dunne and Zhang 2023) develop a system of population estimates compiled on administrative data only.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Chipperfield,

Chu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Journal of Official Statistics

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The first key use of a nation’s Census is to count its resident population. A Census will have counting errors, often referred to as over-coverage and under-coverage. So it is common practice in many countries to conduct an independent count of its residents, a so-called coverage survey, and estimate or adjust for these counting errors within the capture-recapture framework. In recent times, many censuses and coverage surveys have faced challenges in counting the population efficiently and effectively due to rising costs, declining response rates, and respondent burden. This has led to a shift toward exploring the role that administrative registers could play in counting the population within the capture-recapture framework. Administrative registers are relatively inexpensive and can have high coverage of a nation’s population. This paper explores methods to overcome common problems with the use of administrative registers within this framework, including linking errors and scoping the register to only capture residents. These methods are empirically assessed in the context of the Australian population.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Chipperfield,

Chu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Journal of Official Statistics

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Advances in the Use of Capture-Recapture Methodology in the Estimation of U.S. Census Coverage Error

Mulry

Mule²

2022

Recent Advances on Sampling Methods and Educational Statistics

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John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang's reply to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only'

Dunne,

Zhang

2023

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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We are grateful to all those who submitted comments on the paper. Their comments give us an opportunity to revisit some of the key points in our paper, as well as to elaborate on some important issues which we could not cover in sufficient detail in the paper. Specific assumptions and general applicabilityThe three assumptions related to the potential DSE bias are concerned with linkage errors, erroneous records, and heterogeneous list capture probabilities, as commented by Baffour, Chai, Eleanor, Shlomo and Smith. While the first two types of error seem to have their own distinct causes, heterogeneous capture probabilities may be confounded with list dependence. Nevertheless, since the consequence of any list dependence is just heterogeneous capture probabilities, one only needs to focus on whether the capture probability of at least one list is sufficiently constant given the relevant covariates, such as by post-stratification, rather than deliberating whether independence can or cannot be assumed for different register sources. Diagnostics and tests for homogeneous B-list capture probability are useful tools in practice.In reality, where question marks cannot be entirely eradicated for any of the error sources, there are only two logical steps one can take.The first step is to define a strategy, by which some types of error can be reduced to a negligible extent compared to the remaining ones. In the PECADO system, decisions are made to make A-list undercounting the predominant problem that remains, which can be solved by the traditional wisdom of DSE implementation. Whereas the system described by Bernardi et al. sets up EPR overcounting as the main issue to be solved. This shows how different practical approaches are possible following the same strategy of 'reduce-and-conquer', given the data situations in different countries.The second step is to develop adequate methods to support the chosen strategy. For instance, trimming source-registers instead of individual records is found to be useful for the PECADO system. But it may not be feasible if the statistical agency has only limited access to various signs-of-life data sources. Chipperfield et al. ( 2023) investigate capture-recapture estimation given both non-negligible linkage errors and erroneous records. In particular, a record-level score for trimming can be modelled on linking census and administrative spine, such that the trimmed spine containing negligible erroneous records can be used as a list for capture-recapture estimation. Methodological extensionsSeveral needs and possibilities for methodological extensions are mentioned by Abbott, Allin, Eleanor, Henry and O'Farrell, Pfeffermann and Shlomo, which pertain to potential uses of more sophisticated models, disaggregating statistics to more detailed levels including special subpopulations, and producing attribute statistics by similar methods.

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Multiple System Estimation using Covariates having Missing Values and Measurement Error: Estimating the Size of the Māori Population in New Zealand

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution-NonCo mmercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

Cited by 6 publications

References 37 publications

Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Advances in the Use of Capture-Recapture Methodology in the Estimation of U.S. Census Coverage Error

John Dunne and Li-Chun Zhang's reply to the Discussion of ‘A system of population estimates compiled from administrative data only'

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