Multiscale Complexity Analysis of Rainfall in Northeast Brazil

Silva, Antônio Samuel Alves da; Barreto, Íkaro Daniel de Carvalho; Cunha-Filho, Moacyr; Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cézar; Stošić, Borko; Stošić, Tatijana

doi:10.3390/w13223213

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The complexity of climate system emerges as the result of multiple interactions between many different components [1]. Climate variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind exhibit temporal and spatial fluctuations over wide range of scales as a result of complex nonlinear underlying processes which understanding requires the use of new concepts such as chaos theory [2,3], fractals and multifractals [4][5][6][7][8], information content [9,10] and complex networks [11,12]. The knowledge of these properties has shown useful for development and validation of new more reliable climate models on local and regional scales [13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects through MFDFA Study of Temperature in Serbia

Stosic,

Tošić

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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We investigate multifractal properties of daily means of air temperature over the territory of Serbia, by using Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Temperature anomalies in two periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 are calculated from the E-OBSv26.0e gridded dataset with 0.10° (~12 km) resolution, totaling 1278 daily temperature series for each period. The MFDFA parameters: position of the maximum of the spectrum α0, width of the spectrum W and asymmetry r, obtained from the total of 2556 MFDFA runs are interpolated to yield their spatial distribution across Serbia in the two periods. We found several patterns in both the spatial distribution, and changes from first to second period. All series showed multifractal properties with overall persistent long-term correlations (α0 > 0.5) and the dominance of small fluctuations (r > 0). The persistence is weaker (smaller α0 values) and multifractality is stronger (larger width W) in southern mountainous regions. In the second period the values of α0 increased indicating stronger persistence of temperature dynamics, while multifractality became stronger (larger W) in northern region and weaker (smaller W) in southern region. In both periods the contribution to multifractality was dominated by small fluctuations (r > 0) that become stronger in the second period, indicated by the increase of the values of r over most of the country’s area. These changes in the values of multifractal parameters indicate the increase of complexity of temperature dynamics in the second 30 years period which could be related to climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects through MFDFA Study of Temperature in Serbia

Stosic,

Tošić

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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Extreme Rainfall Analysis in Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil, Using a High‐Resolution Gridded Dataset

Gomes,

da Silva,

Araújo

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper presents a detailed spatio‐temporal analysis of the rainfall in the state of Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil. It is based on climate indices for extreme precipitation recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices. To accomplish this, daily rainfall 1data (1961–2019) were extracted from 809 high‐resolution grid points (0.1° × 0.1°) using the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR‐DWGD). The significance and magnitude of index trends were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests. This study also examined whether there existed a significant difference in climate indices among the three regions (Sertão, Agreste and Zona da Mata) within the state. The findings revealed notable significant negative trends in the PRCPTOT, R10mm, R20mm, Rx1day, Rx5day and CWD indices across all regions of Pernambuco, exhibiting a gradient from the coast to the state's interior. Reduction values of up to 15 mm year−1 for PRCPTOT, 0.7 day year−1 for R10mm, 0.2 day year−1 for R20mm, 0.01 mm year−1 for Rx1day, 0.03 mm year−1 for Rx5day, 0.4 day year−1 for CWD were observed. Furthermore, an alarming pattern was also noted for CDD, displaying a higher concentration of significant positive trends in all regions of the state, with estimated increases of up to 1.4 day year−1. Conversely, a balance of trends—both positive and negative—was observed across the entire state for R95p and R99p, with a majority of trends proving non‐significant. SDII exhibited a higher frequency of grid points showing a significant positive trend, particularly notable in the Sertão and Zona da Mata regions, where significant differences in the index values were absent. However, the remaining indices showcased notable regional differences, with values decreasing from the east to the west of the state, except for CDD. This study will assist decision makers, providing detailed long‐term information essential for preventing natural disasters and supporting socioeconomic and environmental policies in the state.

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