2023
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3055166/v1
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Multiscale Nonlinearity of Error Growth in High-Resolution Forecasts for Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract: In this study, the nonlinearity in a weather forecast, defined as the extent to which the initial opposite-sign state vector does not keep the same magnitude and opposite direction in a forecast time, was examined in an environment containing a multiscale convective system. A pair of 18-h forecast experiments with initial perturbations of different signs was conducted for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan on 13 August 2021. Despite the initially different signs, the perturbations at a given forecast time… Show more

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