Multiscenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Huaibei City Based on CLUE-S and PLUS Models

Zhao, Mingsong; Gao, Yingfeng; Wang, Tao; Zhao, Zhidong; Wang, Shihang

doi:10.3390/app13127142

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Its drawback is that it fails to take into account the evolution of land use through time and pays little attention to how various external factors affect changes in land use. It mostly consists of software like the CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model [32,33], FLUS (Functional Land Use Simulation) model [34,35], and SD-MOP (System Dynamics-Multi-Objective Programming) model [36,37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Zeng,

Liu,

Tian

et al. 2024

Land

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The spatial–temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of carbon stock under the influence of land use changes are crucial to the scientific management of environmental resources and the optimization of land spatial layout. Taking the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou urban agglomeration in the southeastern coastal region of China as an example, based on seven land use types from 1990 to 2020, including cultivated land, woodland, and construction land, we quantitatively investigate the spatial–temporal patterns of carbon stock development and the spatial correlation of carbon stock distribution. Additionally, two scenarios for the development of urban and ecological priorities in 2060 are established to investigate the effects of land use changes on carbon stock. The results indicate that (1) the research area has formed a land use spatial pattern centered around urban construction in the eastern bay area, with the western forest area and coastal forest belt serving as ecological barriers. Carbon stock is influenced by land use type, and the distribution of total carbon stock exhibits a spatial aggregation phenomenon characterized by “low in the southeast, high in the north, and medium in the center”. (2) Distance of trunk and secondary roads, elevation, slope, watershed borders, population size, and gross domestic product (GDP) factors are the main drivers of the growth of land use types. The primary causes of the reduction in carbon stock are the widespread conversion of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland into construction land, as well as water and unused land. (3) In 2060, there will be a decrease of 41,712,443.35 Mg in the urban priority development scenario compared to 2020, and a decrease of 29,577,580.48 Mg in the ecological priority development scenario. The estimated carbon stock under the two scenarios varies by 12,134,862.88 Mg. The average carbon storage of Zhangpu County, Quangang County, and Jimei County is expected to rise by one level under the ecological protection scenario, indicating that the vast forest area can become a potential area to maintain carbon stock. It is crucial to encourage the coordinated development of peri-urban agroforestry and ecological barriers, as well as to establish a harmonious spatial pattern of land use and carbon stock at the scale of urban agglomerations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Zeng,

Liu,

Tian

et al. 2024

Land

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“…Scenario analysis. Based on the documents "Jiangsu Province Land Spatial Planning (2021-2035)" and "Jiangsu Province 14th Five-Year Plan Grain Industry Development Plan", as well as drawing insights from previous studies [43][44][45], the study established three development scenarios as follows:…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Non-Grain Production on Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province, China

Jiang,

Wang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Land

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Cultivated land plays a crucial role as the basis of grain production, and it is essential to effectively manage the unregulated expansion of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land in order to safeguard food security. The study of NGP has garnered significant attention from scholars, but the prediction of NGP trends is relatively uncommon. Therefore, we focused on Jiangsu Province, a significant grain production region in China, as the study area. We extracted data on cultivated land for non-grain production (NGPCL) in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019, and calculated the ratio of non-grain production (NGPR) for each county unit in the province. On this basis, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and spatial autocorrelation analysis tools were utilized to uncover the spatio-temporal evolution of NGP in Jiangsu Province. Finally, the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was utilized to predict the trend of NGP in Jiangsu Province in 2038 under the three development scenarios of natural development (NDS), cultivated land protection (CPS), and food security (FSS). After analyzing the results, we came to the following conclusions:(1) During the period of 2000–2019, the NGPCL area and NGPR in Jiangsu Province exhibited a general decreasing trend. (2) The level of NGP displayed a spatial distribution pattern of being “higher in the south and central and lower in the north”. (3) The results of multi-scenario simulation show that under the NDS, the area of NGPCL and cultivated land for grain production (GPCL) decreases significantly; under the CPS, the decrease in NGPCL and GPCL is smaller than that of the NDS. Under the FSS, NGPCL decreases, while GPCL increases. These results can provide reference for the implementation of land use planning, the delineation of the cultivated land protection bottom line, and the implementation of thee cultivated land use control system in the study area.

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“…. This research simulated the 2015 land use data utilizing the 2010 land use/cover data, compared the simulated and real data, and assessed the simulation outcomes employing the Kappa coefficient(Yu et al, 2023). Ultimately, three possibilities of future land use/cover are simulated using the PLUS model, taking into account the driving components like precipitation, DEM, slope, highways, water infrastructure, GDP, and population density:(1) Natural Development Scenario: Regardless of policy making and other circumstances, this scenario matches up with the development trend from 2010 to 2015 based on what is known about historical land use data.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The comprehensive effects of future multi‐scenario land use change and climate change on water conservation in Northwest China

Zhou,

Wu,

Song

et al. 2024

Land Degrad Dev

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Water conservation is an important ecosystem service, which is crucial to the fragile ecological environment and serious soil erosion in Northwest China. However, water conservation has been affected by climate change and human disturbance, and its future spatial and temporal changes are still unclear. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model to assess the water conservation capacity of Northwest China between 1990 and 2020. Subsequently, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) were integrated to examine changes in water conservation from 2030 to 2050. The water conservation quantity in Northwest China had a fluctuating growth tendency between 1990 and 2020, with an average of 816.61 × 108 m3. The water conservation capacity's regional distribution pattern shows a steady increase from northwest to southeast. Northwest China's forest land had the greatest water conservation capacity between 1990 and 2020, at 66 mm, while the water land had the lowest, at 1.46 mm. The water conservation capacity in the 2030–2050 future scenario is less than that in 2020 when the regional distribution pattern is comparable to 2020. Natural development scenario (ND) in 2030 has the lowest water conservation capacity (13.41 mm) under ssp1‐2.6 precipitation scenario, whereas in 2050, the highest water conservation capacity (17.47 mm) is found in same scenario. The ecological protection scenario (EP) has the greatest water retention capacity (18.15 mm in 2040) and the lowest (14.38 mm in 2050) in the ssp5‐8.5 scenario. Our research can help restore and rebuild Northwest China's natural ecosystem and offer a theoretical foundation for the protection of ecological environment and the rational utilization of water resources in the region.

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Multiscenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Huaibei City Based on CLUE-S and PLUS Models

Cited by 7 publications

References 29 publications

Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Non-Grain Production on Cultivated Land in Jiangsu Province, China

The comprehensive effects of future multi‐scenario land use change and climate change on water conservation in Northwest China

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