Multispecies comparisons of adaptability to climate change: A role for life-history characteristics?

Abstract

Phenological advancement allows individuals to adapt to climate change by timing life‐history events to the availability of key resources so that individual fitness is maximized. However, different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates, potentially leading to a phenological mismatch. This may be especially apparent in the highly seasonal arctic environment that is experiencing the effects of climate change more so than any other region. During a 14‐year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological advancement in egg laying in relation to snowmelt for eight arctic‐breeding shorebirds and investigated potential linkages to species‐specific life‐history characteristics. We found that snowmelt advanced 0.8 days/year—six times faster than the prior 60‐year period. During this same time, six of the eight species exhibited phenological advancement in laying dates (varying among species from 0.1 to 0.9 days earlier per year), although no species appeared capable of keeping pace with advancing snowmelt. Phenological changes were likely the result of high phenotypic plasticity, as all species investigated in this study showed high interannual variability in lay dates. Commonality among species with similar response rates to timing of snowmelt suggests that nesting later and having an opportunistic settlement strategy may increase the adaptability of some species to changing climate conditions. Other life‐history characteristics, such as migration strategy, previous site experience, and mate fidelity did not influence the ability of individuals to advance laying dates. As a failure to advance egg laying is likely to result in greater phenological mismatch, our study provides an initial assessment of the relative risk of species to long‐term climatic changes.

Phenological mismatch in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

“…However, migration rates are limited by flight speeds, food availability at migration stop-over sites, and weather conditions encountered during migration (La Sorte & Fink, 2017;Zhang et al, 2018). These facts are likely to prevent shorebirds from keeping pace with rising temperatures that are causing earlier snowmelt, thus precluding them from exploiting the progressively earlier availability of their invertebrate prey (Braegelman, 2016;Grabowski et al, 2013;Saalfeld & Lanctot, 2017). These facts are likely to prevent shorebirds from keeping pace with rising temperatures that are causing earlier snowmelt, thus precluding them from exploiting the progressively earlier availability of their invertebrate prey (Braegelman, 2016;Grabowski et al, 2013;Saalfeld & Lanctot, 2017).…”

“…Timing of snowmelt affects shorebird nest initiation dates by controlling when suitable habitat and food resources become available (Grabowski et al, 2013;Green et al, 1977;Liebezeit et al, 2014;Meltofte, 1985;Meltofte, Høye, Schmidt, & Forchhammer, 2007;Saalfeld & Lanctot, 2017;Smith, Gilchrist, Forbes, Martin, & Allard, 2010). Therefore, we estimated the percentage of snow cover to the nearest 5% within thirty-six 50 × 50 m quadrats (25% of the plot) equally spaced throughout each 36-ha study plot every 2-5 days until ≤10% snow cover remained.…”

“…Shorebirds comprise a large portion of the avian fauna breeding in the Arctic and are an ideal taxon to investigate phenological mismatch. In fact, several studies have shown that both Subarctic-and Arctic-breeding shorebirds (Gill et al, 2014;Grabowski, Doyle, Reid, Mossop, & Talarico, 2013;Liebezeit, Gurney, Budde, Zack, & Ward, 2014;Saalfeld & Lanctot, 2017) and their invertebrate prey (Braegelman, 2016;Tulp & Schekkerman, 2008) have advanced their phenologies with recent climate change. In fact, several studies have shown that both Subarctic-and Arctic-breeding shorebirds (Gill et al, 2014;Grabowski, Doyle, Reid, Mossop, & Talarico, 2013;Liebezeit, Gurney, Budde, Zack, & Ward, 2014;Saalfeld & Lanctot, 2017) and their invertebrate prey (Braegelman, 2016;Tulp & Schekkerman, 2008) have advanced their phenologies with recent climate change.…”

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

“…, Kwon et al. , Saalfeld and Lanctot ). Low intra‐individual repeatability in the timing of breeding, combined with generally low natal philopatry among shorebirds (Nol et al.…”

“…Low intra‐individual repeatability in the timing of breeding, combined with generally low natal philopatry among shorebirds (Nol et al. , Saalfeld and Lanctot ), suggests that variation in the timing of breeding is likely a flexible response to environmental change rather than an example of microevolution (Ghalambor et al. ).…”