Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas

Pirani, Farshad Jalili; Najafi, Mohammad Reza

doi:10.1029/2022ef002655

Cited by 20 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…Previous studies have discussed the limitation in risk analysis if climate events are analysed in isolation (Singh et al, 2021; Jalili Pirani & Najafi, 2020, 2022; Zscheischler et al, 2018; AghaKouchak et al, 2014). Investigating single hazards might not fully capture the underlying risks, as the impacts can be amplified if there are dependencies between the driving mechanisms.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic assessment of concurrent tornado and storm‐related flash flood events

Ngui

Najafi

Souza

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The concurrent occurrence of extreme events can significantly impact societies and infrastructure systems, especially when the instructions provided to the exposed communities demand conflicting responses. In this study, a probabilistic assessment of concurrent tornado and storm-related flash flood (TORFF) events is performed across southern Canada. We quantify the interdependencies between tornadoes and flash floods (extreme precipitation as proxy) using ground-based and reanalysis datasets. Windspeed values corresponding to tornado events, categorized based on the recorded Fujita rating, are derived through a resampling approach. The TORFF events are clustered and the corresponding bivariate probability distributions of the resampled windspeed and associated precipitation are characterized based on Copula framework. The individual and joint return periods of concurrent tornadoes and flash floods are then assessed under the AND (when both variables exceed predefined thresholds), OR (when either one of the two variables exceeds predefined thresholds), and conditional hazard scenarios across Canada. Results show positive strong dependencies between resampled windspeed and associated precipitation in Saskatchewan, and weaker dependencies followed by Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. The Saskatchewan region shows the highest risk underestimation considering the independence scenario compared to the other regions. Higher precipitation is also expected during extreme windspeed, as observed in the conditional assessment of precipitation given windspeed. This study provides insights for more robust recurrence interval estimation for tornadoes and flash floods to aid in emergency planning of evacuation decision-making process.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic assessment of concurrent tornado and storm‐related flash flood events

Ngui

Najafi

Souza

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…However, due to the introduction of copula-based multi-variate frameworks, this limitation is no longer applicable [155][156][157]. These frameworks are also useful in dealing with compound flooding, which results from the interaction of different flood-generating sources, such as river-borne floods and storm surges [16,124,[158][159][160][161], as well as heavy precipitation combined with snowmelt or saturated soil conditions [162,163], all of which contribute to the magnification of the hazardous situation. The definition of conventionally used single return period becomes inadequate in the case of compound flooding since it involves the joint probability of occurrence of two or more hazardous events.…”

Section: • Importance Of Data Length In Ffa and Surrogatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Islam,

Fereshtehpour,

Najafi

et al. 2024

Discov Appl Sci

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Increasing frequency and intensification of flooding pose significant threats to critical structures, such as dams and levees. Failure of these structures can lead to substantial economic losses and significant adverse environmental and social consequences. Improving the resilience of these structures against climate-related impacts is important to avoid future risks of failure due to the potential intensification of flooding. National-level guidance on integrating resilience-based frameworks and addressing climate risks and uncertainties in existing design flood estimation methodologies for dams and levees are lacking. To address these gaps, this study first reviews projected climate change patterns for Canada and then discusses regional vulnerabilities of dams by considering significant historical floods and their consequences. Subsequently, a review of existing design flood estimation procedures, with a focus on frequency- and probable maximum flood-based approaches, is conducted to identify areas where climate change-related aspects can be integrated. By examining the challenges associated with various stages of design flood estimation procedures, the review discusses a framework for enhancing climate resiliency of dams and levees considering four pillars of resilience. Furthermore, Canadian design flood estimation practices are compared with international practices to identify areas that require attention. The study highlights the importance of a resilience-based framework in providing design and operation guidance to ensure that dams and levees are resilient to climate impacts. Policymakers and engineers can prioritize consideration of climate-resilience in the design and operation of these structures in order to safeguard communities and infrastructure from the growing risks of future floods associated with climate change.

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“…Hydrologic risk is evaluated by FP, defined as the likelihood of a potential flood event taking place at least once over the lifespan of a project [8,22,35,62]. The equation for calculating the FP is as follows:…”

Section: Failure Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

Zhu,

Zhang,

Zhu

2024

Water

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In low-lying coastal areas, the interplay of various factors including precipitation, river flow, and storm surge can lead to greater influence on floods when they occur simultaneously. The copula method was used in this study to investigate the bivariate flood risk of compounding storm surge and river discharge events in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that while the correlation between storm surge and flood peak (S-Q) was weak, there was a strong dependence between the pairs of storm surge–flood volume (S-V) and storm surge–flood duration (S-D). For these three pairs, the Clayton copula was the optimal function for S-Q, while the Frank copula was the optimal function for S-V and S-D, respectively. When the flood volume exceeds 2.0 × 104 m3/s and the flood duration is more than 10 days, the bivariate hydrologic risk for S-V and S-D is observed to decrease rapidly. Furthermore, the failure probability (FP) would be underestimated when the combined impact of river flow and storm surge is ignored in coastal flood risk assessment. Such bivariate hydrologic risk analysis implies that when determining design values in coastal flood risk assessment, the combined impact of river flow and storm surge should be taken into account.

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Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas

Cited by 20 publications

References 99 publications

Probabilistic assessment of concurrent tornado and storm‐related flash flood events

Probabilistic assessment of concurrent tornado and storm‐related flash flood events

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula

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