“…We model the trends in the counts using transitional Poisson regression model and assume that if the counts are incontrol then the one day ahead forecast errors are uncorrelated. In situations where spatial correlation persists in the forecast errors for in-control situations, an alternative approach is models which account for this spatial correlation, such as seeming unrelated Poisson regression models (King, 1989, andGrijalva, T., Bohara, et al 2003), and multivariate Poisson regression model Meligkotsidou, 2005, andBermudez andKarlis, 2011). However, here we model each of the 1600 cells separately using Poisson regression models very similar to that used in Sparks et al (2010a) and Sparks et al (2011a) that use explanatory variables: logarithm of lag counts plus 1, day-of-the-week, public holidays and harmonics.…”