Municipal Brazilian electoral results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Using municipal death registered Ministry of Health data and first-round electoral results of Presidential elections in 2018 and 2022, we evaluate the hypothesis if there is an association between excess mortality and political partisanship in Brazil. Given the political stance adopted by President Bolsonaro, favouring scientific discredit and neglecting the severity of the pandemic, it is expected that there is possibly a relationship between excessive mortality rates during COVID-19 health crisis and the number of municipal votes for Bolsonaro. Our results showed that in both elections the first-round percentage of municipal votes for Bolsonaro was positively associated with the peaks of excess deaths across Brazilian municipalities in 2020 and 2021. Another interesting result, even with the excess of mortality during the pandemic, Bolsonaro's political loyalty did not reduce during the second electoral period of 2022, and the positive association between excess deaths and votes still remained. A possible explanation to this fact is linked to the actual Brazilian political scenario, which is experiencing an environment of tribal politics and affective polarization.