2018
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.171274
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Musical trends and predictability of success in contemporary songs in and out of the top charts

Abstract: We analyse more than 500 000 songs released in the UK between 1985 and 2015 to understand the dynamics of success (defined as ‘making it’ into the top charts), correlate success with acoustic features and explore the predictability of success. Several multi-decadal trends have been uncovered. For example, there is a clear downward trend in ‘happiness’ and ‘brightness’, as well as a slight upward trend in ‘sadness’. Furthermore, songs are becoming less ‘male’. Interestingly, successful songs exhibit their own d… Show more

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Cited by 67 publications
(70 citation statements)
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References 30 publications
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“…Lomax's songstyle region names varied-here I chose the most geographically descriptive names from Lomax's 1980 and 1989 publications (e.g., "Eurasian High Culture" instead of "Old High Culture") (2013) linked traditional periodization boundaries in Western classical music (Baroque, Classical, Romantic, 20 th century) to changes in pitch distribution patterns, while Serrà et al (2012) and Mauch et al (2015) both quantified the evolution of diversity in Western popular music, with the former concluding that musical diversity was decreasing while the latter rejected this conclusion in favor of a more complex "punctuated evolution" model (see further discussion below in the section on "Reductionism"). Although the details differ greatly, these studies share a common thread in arguing that musical evolution follows patterns and processes that can be usefully understood using theories and methods adapted from the study of biological evolution (see also Bentley et al, 2007;Interiano et al, 2018;Brand et al, 2019).…”
Section: Macroevolution and Cantometricsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Lomax's songstyle region names varied-here I chose the most geographically descriptive names from Lomax's 1980 and 1989 publications (e.g., "Eurasian High Culture" instead of "Old High Culture") (2013) linked traditional periodization boundaries in Western classical music (Baroque, Classical, Romantic, 20 th century) to changes in pitch distribution patterns, while Serrà et al (2012) and Mauch et al (2015) both quantified the evolution of diversity in Western popular music, with the former concluding that musical diversity was decreasing while the latter rejected this conclusion in favor of a more complex "punctuated evolution" model (see further discussion below in the section on "Reductionism"). Although the details differ greatly, these studies share a common thread in arguing that musical evolution follows patterns and processes that can be usefully understood using theories and methods adapted from the study of biological evolution (see also Bentley et al, 2007;Interiano et al, 2018;Brand et al, 2019).…”
Section: Macroevolution and Cantometricsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Theories about cultural evolution quickly adopted assumptions about progress (e.g., Spencer, 1875) linked with attempts to legitimize ideologies of Western superiority and justify the oppression of the weak by the powerful as survival of the fittest (Hofstadter, 1955;Laland and Brown, 2011;Stocking, 1982) 2 . It is no accident that Zallinger's iconic "March of Progress" illustration ( Fig.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Já [Interiano et al 2018] utilizaram características acústicas das músicas para realizar suas predições. Os autores coletaram dados de mais de 500.000 músicas a partir do Top 100 de Singles no Reino Unido da Official Charts Company (OCC) 5 e do site Music-Brainz 6 .…”
Section: Trabalhos Relacionadosunclassified
“…O problema de realizar predições no mercado musical vem sendo estudado na literatura, onde algoritmos de aprendizagem de máquina apresentam melhores resultados de forma geral. Dados de diferentes fontes foram utilizados para desenvolver modelos preditivos, como informações de redes sociais [Dhar and Chang 2009] [Shulman et al 2016], das características acústicas das faixas [Lee and Lee 2018] [Interiano et al 2018], de shows e festivais [Arakelyan et al 2018] [Steininger and Gatzemeier 2013] e de colaborações entre artistas [Silva et al 2019] [Araújo et al 2017]. Para o desenvolvimento de nosso modelo utilizamos duas abordagens com o intuito de identificar qual destas apresenta melhor resultado em nossos experimentos.…”
Section: Introductionunclassified
“…Selbst einen Track zum erst kürzlich entdeckten Oganesson kann man sich schon auf YouTube anhören . Mittlerweile existieren auch schon Ansätze, Phänomenen wie dem Charterfolg mit der Auswertung von „Big Data“ auf die Spur zu kommen .…”
Section: Periodensystem Einmal Andersunclassified