Myanmar: Unlocking the Potential. A Strategy for High, Sustained, and Inclusive Growth

Abstract

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

Post-socialist Myanmar and the East Asian Development Model

“…The initial reforms increased the developmental dynamics. Estimates of economic growth in the above period (5.5% per annum in the 1990s and 4.7% in 2000s) contrast with those of 1980s (1.8%) (Findlay et al 2015). In 2011, the economic transformation accelerated and political liberalisation began.…”

“…The developmental catching up with neighbours will be a tedious and time-consuming process. A realistic forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says that with the development dynamics of 7-8%, Myanmar will reach the current level of development of Indonesia and Sri Lanka in 2030, with a more ambitious but still real development trajectory (9-10%), it can reach the level of Thailand today in 2030 (Findlay et al 2015). The East Asian economies recorded a similar high dynamics during their so-called fast growth periods, which lasted for decades, examples being Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China as well as Malaysia and Thailand; hence, the prospects for Myanmar are relatively good.…”

“…In its report on the economic potential of Myanmar, ADB (Findlay et al 2015) showed a lot of optimism. In the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis, it considered strengths of the authorities and the society to carry out economic and political reforms; the richness of natural resources, including minerals, gas and also water resources and arable land; as well as a young society.…”

“…Similar liberalisation of international trade also took place in the early stages of transformation in Vietnam and Laos. As a result, in the period 2010-2014, the value of Myanmar's imports increased from USD 9.9 billion to USD 24.2 billion, 16 and the increase in the availability of consumer goods could be compared with that in the initial period of systemic reforms in Poland. 17 In this context, the authorities gave up the strategy of ISI in the short term, which was a departure from the East Asian development model, but, nevertheless, went on to develop an export-oriented production base (EOI).…”

Recommended vs. Practice: Smallholder Fertilizer Decisions in Central Myanmar

“…The agricultural sector plays a vital role in the country's economy, contributing 38% of the country's GDP (Gross domestic product), accounting for 25-30% of total export earnings and employing more than 60% of the labor force [1]. Despite this, agricultural productivity in Myanmar is low and farm profits are amongst the lowest in Asia [2].…”