NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability

Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Jin, Fei‐Fei

doi:10.1002/2013gl057877

Cited by 254 publications

(224 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…This is consistent with previous studies that the hiatus is an interdecadal phenomenon (e.g. Li et al 2013; Kosaka and Xie 2013). However, which of the interdecadal signals influences the HC, in particular, the HEA, is still unknown.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Decreased Response Contrast of Hadley Circulation to the Equatorially Asymmetric and Symmetric Tropical SST Structures during the Recent Hiatus

Feng

Wang

et al. 2017

SOLA

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Variations of the Hadley circulation (HC) are influenced by the underlying sea surface temperature (SST). The contrasting response of the HC to meridional structure of SST is examined between two periods, one prior to and the other during the recent warming hiatus (i.e., 1979−1998 and 1999−2015). By decomposing the variations of HC and SST into equatorially asymmetric (HEA for HC; SEA for SST) and symmetric components (HES for HC; SES for SST), the HEA response to SEA and the HES response to SES are quantitatively analyzed. Multiple reanalyses consistently indicate that the ratio of the response of HEA to SEA with respect to that of HES to SES is clearly decreased in the period 1999−2015. This is because the response of HEA to SEA is suppressed in this period, while the response of HES to SES is enhanced, suggesting a corresponding change in the air-sea interactions involved during the two periods. Further examination found that the variation of SST over Pacific may play an important role in determining the reduced response ratio of HC to SST in the recent hiatus.(Citation: Feng, J., J. Li, Y. Wang, and Y. Guo, 2017: Decreas ed response contrast of Hadley circulation to the equatorially asymmetric and symmetric tropical SST structures during the recent hiatus. SOLA, 13, 181−185,

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Decreased Response Contrast of Hadley Circulation to the Equatorially Asymmetric and Symmetric Tropical SST Structures during the Recent Hiatus

Feng

Wang

et al. 2017

SOLA

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“…It has been well documented in the literature that over interdecadal timescales the NAO has important impacts on regional and hemispheric climates in the NH (Hurrell 1995;Thompson and Wallace 2000;Hurrell et al 2003;Li et al 2013, and references therein). The NAO shows a remarkable upward trend over the second half of the twentieth century (Hurrell 1995;Thompson and Wallace 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO

2015

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that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has significant potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records.

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“…3). The significance of the correlations has been verified using the effective number of degrees of freedom (Li et al 2013). The GISS-E2-R and HadCM3 models follow the reconstruction especially well and exhibit the highest correlation coefficients of all seven models with the reconstruction (0.59 and 0.52, respectively; both significant at the 99 % confidence level).…”

Section: Comparison With Climate Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 87%

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

Shi

Yang

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

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To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June-July-August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial timescales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.

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NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability

Cited by 254 publications

References 43 publications

Decreased Response Contrast of Hadley Circulation to the Equatorially Asymmetric and Symmetric Tropical SST Structures during the Recent Hiatus

Decreased Response Contrast of Hadley Circulation to the Equatorially Asymmetric and Symmetric Tropical SST Structures during the Recent Hiatus

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

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