Narrative Economics

Shiller, Robert J.

doi:10.3386/w23075

Cited by 41 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In the words of Abbott "Narrative is the representation of events, consisting of story and narrative discourse, story is an event or sequence of events (the action), and narrative discourse is those events as represented (Abbott, 2002). It is not easy to establish the direct association between narratives and major economic outcomes (Shiller, 2017). However, one can indirectly establish the relationship by analyzing the effect of narratives on individuals' choices and subsequent to collective decisions.…”

Section: Backdropmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Narrative Economics Justify Economic Fluctuations and Inequality? An Approach from Micro to Macro Perspective

Gaur¹,

Kant²

2021

TEL

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Section: Backdropmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Narrative Economics Justify Economic Fluctuations and Inequality? An Approach from Micro to Macro Perspective

Gaur¹,

Kant²

2021

TEL

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“…In terms of neuroeconomics, I was president in the 2016 year of the American Economic Association (AEA), which is the main economists association in the U.S., and I gave my Presidential address (pic. 1) 2 , which I entitled Narrative Economics [3]. And I am trying to argue that economists are negligent in not studying the stories, the narratives that people spread.…”

Section: Neuroscience+psychology+economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are three books I have in Russian (pic. 2), but I recently discovered that I have a fourth when a young man just asked me to sign one 3 , but there are three which I knew about so far. They all are relevant to narrative economics, the things that I have been developing over the years to try to understand economics from a wider prospect [4][5][6][7].…”

Section: Neuroscience+psychology+economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Narrative Economics and Neuroeconomics

Shiller¹

2018

jour

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This article is a reworked lecture I have given at the Financial university under the Government of the Russian Federation in Moscow. This lecture has considered the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations (outcomes), allowing them to "go viral" and spread far away, even worldwide, and thereby influencing economic outcomes. However, I had to accommodate my talk to the Russian audience adding some illustrative examples for better understanding. My basic goal in this paper is to describe what we know about narratives and the penchant of the human mind to be engaged by them, to consider reasons to expect that narratives might well be thought of as important, largely exogenous shocks to the aggregate economy. Thus, the main focus was on narratives going viral, affecting the economy in an age of neuroimaging, big data. This is because the human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions-even in such basic actions as spending and investing. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future. Many examples are seen as revealing the importance of the linkage of human brains and now computers through narratives associated with popular models of the economy and offering new research opportunities for both economics and neuroscience.

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“…This served to enshrine a constant or falling debtto-GDP ratio as a policy objective in its own right. As Shiller (2017) pointed out, narratives need not be true to exert a strong political influence. They can shape or even define the political debate even without being true.…”

Section: Setting the Stage 21 ''Debt Chancellor'' Kreiskymentioning

confidence: 99%

The strong increase of Austrian government debt in the Kreisky era: Austro-Keynesianism or just stubborn forecast errors?

Brugger

Kleinert

2018

Empirica

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In the Kreisky era (1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983), Austrian government debts increased strongly. Historically, the attitude of Kreisky and the Social Democrats towards Keynesian fiscal policy measures to fight unemployment during the oil crises has been held to be responsible for the successive budget deficits. Kreisky's ideological debt policy has become a narrative that has strongly influenced Austrian fiscal policy until today. While this explanation for the strong increase in public debt during the Kreisky era is widely accepted, it is not necessarily true. In this paper, we assess a different explanation: the deficits might simply have resulted from forecast errors of GDP growth in those turbulent times. We find that about one-third of the increase in the debt-over-GDP ratio is directly explained by short-run forecast errors, i.e., the difference between the approved and the realized budget, and an additional one-fifth is the lower bound of forecast error regarding the long-run growth rate.

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Narrative Economics

Cited by 41 publications

References 39 publications

Can Narrative Economics Justify Economic Fluctuations and Inequality? An Approach from Micro to Macro Perspective

Can Narrative Economics Justify Economic Fluctuations and Inequality? An Approach from Micro to Macro Perspective

Narrative Economics and Neuroeconomics

The strong increase of Austrian government debt in the Kreisky era: Austro-Keynesianism or just stubborn forecast errors?

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