Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050

Abstract

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50–54 years), 16.43 (55–59 years), 17.26 (60–64 years), 18.02 (65–69 years), 18.55 (70–74 years), 18.39 (75–79 years), 19.95 (80–84 years), 23.07 (85–89 years), 13.70 (90–94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China’s NPC prevention and control policy design.

Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study

“…Similarly, more males drink alcohol than females in China. The Scientific Research Report on Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2021) showed that the drinking rate was 64.5% in males and 23.1% in females, while the smoking rate for males was 50.5% and that for females was 11.8% 34 . Besides smoking and alcohol use, sex hormones are also one of the risk factors of larynx cancer 35 .…”

“…The Scientific Research Report on Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2021) showed that the drinking rate was 64.5% in males and 23.1% in females, while the smoking rate for males was 50.5% and that for females was 11.8%. 34 Besides smoking and alcohol use, sex hormones are also one of the risk factors of larynx cancer. 35 Compared with normal controls, patients with larynx cancer have higher testosterone levels, but their estrogen levels are at the same levels, indicating that testosterone may promote the development of larynx cancer.…”

Global, regional, and national burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to occupational asbestos exposure 1990–2019 and prediction to 2035: worsening or improving?

“…A Jointpoint regression model was constructed using the method of previous study [ 19 ], in which a log-linear regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) reflecting the trend of ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019. In addition, we used Pearson correlation analysis to further understand the association between SDI and the burden of NCDs associated with occupational asbestos exposure at the national and regional levels.…”

Global burden of maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035: worsening or improving?

“…The model establishes a segmented regression based on the temporal characteristics of the disease distribution, splits the study time into different intervals through a number of connecting points, and optimizes the trend fitting for each interval. The regression coefficients for each interval were weighted to obtain the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) to estimate the overall change over the study period ( 17 , 18 ), as follows:…”