National Health, Wealth, and Energy Use

Skov, Arlie M.

doi:10.2118/52942-ms

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Pro-oil research established a correlation between oil prices and misery (and the more common idea of wealth and energy consumption per capita) (Skov, 1999).…”

Section: Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perils and Pitfalls of Empirical Forecasting

Stallinga

Khmelinskii

2017

ESJ

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It is common to use past information about the system modeled in probabilistic statistics to make predictions about the future. Especially in the area of climate modeling and forecasting this is done. Here it is argued that doing this in a purely empirical way is full of perils and pitfalls. Without knowledge of the underlying physical laws it will go wrong sooner or later. Specifically, the distribution functions are analyzed, which are normally assumed to be well-behaved gaussian-like not because there is a reason for it, but only because they don't cause mathematical problems. Real functions (like power laws) will prohibit any statistical analysis and thus prediction model. Furthermore, correlations and extrapolations are considered. The first show that correlations come in many types and not all of them have a direct causation link. The specific case of extreme events is used as an example to highlight the difficulty and the pitfalls of empirical forecasting in general. The conclusion is that empirical forecasting cannot be used for science.

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“…Pro-oil research established a correlation between oil prices and misery (and the more common idea of wealth and energy consumption per capita) (Skov, 1999).…”

Section: Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perils and Pitfalls of Empirical Forecasting

Stallinga

Khmelinskii

2017

ESJ

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“…Like most high income developed countries, the US has benefited from availability of low cost oil and gas energy in the last century 11 . The US GDP has grown from $822 bn (1996 chained $) in 1929 to $9,440 in 2002, an average overall real growth rate of 3.4%/yr for 73 years, through booms and busts, recessions, and wars.…”

Section: Us Economic and Physical Well Beingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil and Gas Energy and the US Economy

Skov¹

2004

All Days

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TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. Forecasting Future US Energy NeedsNumerous US energy use forecasts have been made, but few withstand the test of time. Most since1983 have erred on the high side, while earlier ones erred on the low side 10 .The latest US EIA (Energy Information Agency, US Department of Energy) forecast of future US energy needs for the period 2002 to 2025, prepared using an econometric model called NEMS (National Energy Modeling System), is shown in Table 7, which includes oil, gas, and total energy forecasts for 2025, with 1983 and 2002 actuals shown for comparison 9 .

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“…Studies have shown that energy consumption is positively correlated to quality of life 12,18 , with quality of life measured by such factors as infant mortality, literacy, life expectation, and university attendance. Cassedy and Grossman 7 provide a good discussion of two diametrically opposed ethical positions that apply to the global distribution of energy (pages 123-130 in Ref.…”

Section: Changing Industry Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil and Gas in the Energy Mix of the 21 Century

Fanchi¹

2000

Proceedings of SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition

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TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractEnergy demand is expected to grow over the next century as more countries seek a better quality of life for their citizens. The energy demand will be met by a global energy mix that is undergoing a transition from an energy portfolio dominated by fossil fuels to an energy portfolio that includes a range of fuel types. This paper presents an overview of energy sources available for use in the 21 st century and a prediction of the contribution of hydrocarbon oil and gas to the 21 st century energy mix. It then includes a discussion of the implications for petroleum engineering education and the emergence of a new type of energy industry. IntroductionPrice volatility, supply instability, and environmental concerns are motivating changes to the energy mix of the 21 st century. Fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil and gas) were the fuel of choice during the last half of the 20 th century. Figures 1 and 2 are based on data presented by Schollnberger 1 and show the dominance of fossil fuels in the energy mix at the end of the 20 th century. Figure 1 shows historical energy consumption in units of Quads, a unit of energy that is often used in discussions of global energy because it is comparable in magnitude to global energy values. One Quad equals one quadrillion BTU or 10 15 BTU. In SI units, one Quad is approximately 10 18 J. The source of energy is presented in the legend in the same order as it appears in Figure 1.

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National Health, Wealth, and Energy Use

Abstract: This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1999 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, 20-23 March 1999.

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Perils and Pitfalls of Empirical Forecasting

Perils and Pitfalls of Empirical Forecasting

Oil and Gas Energy and the US Economy

Oil and Gas in the Energy Mix of the 21 Century

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