National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants

Abstract

Summary Background Rising body weight is a major public health concern. However there have been few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body mass index (BMI), and none that have used recent national health examination surveys. Methods We estimated trends in mean in BMI and their uncertainties for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a given study was nationally representative. Findings Between 1980 and 2008, global mean BMI increased at an annualized rate of 0.4 (95% uncertainty interval 0.2, 0.6, posterior probability (PP) of being a true increase > 0.999) kg/m2/decade for men and 0.5 (0.3–0.7, PP > 0.999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant declines in 19 countries to rising over 2.5 (PP > 0.999) kg/m2/decade in Tonga and Cook Islands. There was an increase in male BMI in all but a few countries, reaching over 2 kg/m2/decade in Nauru and Cook Islands, PP > 0.999. Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33.9 (32.8, 35.0) kg/m2 (men) and 35.0 (33.6, 36.3) (women) in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20.5; 19.8, 21.3) kg/m2 and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19.9 (18.2, 21.5), with BMI also below 21.5 kg/m2 for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and East, South, and Southeast Asia. USA had the highest BMI among high-income countries, followed by New Zealand. In 2008, an estimated 1.47 billion adults worldwide had BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2; of these 205 (193, 217) million men and 297 (280, 315) million women were obese. Interpretation Globally, mean BMI increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially across nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries.

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