National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update

Stirling, Mark; McVerry, Graeme H.; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.; Litchfield, Nicola; Dissen, R. J. Van; Berryman, Kelvin; Barnes, Philip M.; Wallace, Laura; Villamor, Pilar; Langridge, Robert; Lamarche, Geoffroy; Nodder, Scott D.; Reyners, Martin; Bradley, Brendon; Rhoades, David A.; Smith, Warwick D.; Nicol, Andy; Pettinga, Jarg R.; Clark, Kate; Jacobs, Katrina

doi:10.1785/0120110170

Cited by 409 publications

(313 citation statements)

References 156 publications

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“…Anderson and Luco 1983;Youngs and Coppersmith 1985;Frankel et al 2002;Stirling et al 2002;Field et al 2009;Stirling et al 2012) we opted for the original contribution proposed by Anderson and Luco (1983), which generates activity rates that conform to a double-truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution (Anderson and Luco 1983;Youngs and Coppersmith 1985;Bungum 2007).…”

Section: Fault Sources and Background (Fsbg) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

Woessner

Danciu

Giardini

et al. 2015

Bull Earthquake Eng

501

330

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The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project "Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe" (SHARE, 2009(SHARE, -2013. The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the "Global Earthquake Model" initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5)

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Section: Fault Sources and Background (Fsbg) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

Woessner

Danciu

Giardini

et al. 2015

Bull Earthquake Eng

501

330

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The National Seismic Hazard Model of New Zealand (Stirling et al 2012) has recently been updated. In this update, conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa Fault, Ō hariu Fault and WellingtonÁHutt Valley segment of (Table 1), under the exponential, lognormal, Weibull and inverse Gaussian recurrenceÁtime distributions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both these active faults Á the Wairarapa Fault and the Ō hariu Fault Á pose a significant risk to life, property and societal infrastructure. In fact, perceived earthquake hazard and loss in the Wellington region is dominated by these two faults, along with the WellingtonÁHutt Valley segment of the Wellington Fault, at return periods greater than a few hundred years (Smith & Harmsen 2010;Stirling et al 2012). Accordingly, the conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa Fault and the Ō hariu Fault is a matter of great importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Dissen

Rhoades

Little

et al. 2013

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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New information on the timing of past ruptures, size of single-event displacements and Holocene dextral slip rate of the Wairarapa and Ō hariu faults has become available from recent geological studies. This information is used to evaluate the conditional probability of rupture over the next 100 yr using four different recurrenceÁtime models, allowing for data and parameter uncertainties. The sensitivity of estimates to data and distributional assumptions is examined. The southern Wairarapa Fault has a probability of rupture in the next 100 yr of c. 7.7, 1.3, 2.3 and 4.3% under the exponential, lognormal, Weibull and inverse Gaussian models, respectively, based on preferred data inputs. Corresponding estimates for the Ō hariu Fault are c. 4.3, 5.1, 3.9 and 5.1%. A logic tree with subjectively assigned weights is suggested to combine such differing time-dependent estimates. This gives a 100-yr conditional probability of rupture of c. 3.0% for the southern Wairarapa Fault and c. 4.9% for the Ō hariu Fault.

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“…The seismic rupture sources are defined by the current NZ ERF of Stirling et al [14]. Although not required in general, seismic hazard analyses were first performed using empirical GMPEs to identify the 100 earthquake ruptures which contribute most significantly to the seismic hazard (the ERF of Stirling et al [14] contains ruptures from over 500 fault and 20,000 distributed seismicity sources, the majority of which pose negligible hazard at the site). For each of these !…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ground motion selection for simulation‐based seismic hazard and structural reliability assessment

Bradley

Burks

Baker

2015

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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This paper examines four methods by which ground motions can be selected for dynamic seismic response analyses of engineered systems when the underlying seismic hazard is quantified via ground motion simulation rather than empirical ground motion prediction equations. Even with simulation-based seismic hazard, a ground motion selection process is still required in order to extract a small number of time series from the much larger set developed as part of the hazard calculation. Four specific methods are presented for ground motion selection from simulation-based seismic hazard analyses, and pros and cons of each are discussed via a simple and reproducible illustrative example. One of the four methods (method 1 'direct analysis') provides a 'benchmark' result (i.e. using all simulated ground motions), enabling the consistency of the other three more efficient selection methods to be addressed. Method 2 ('stratified sampling') is a relatively simple way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of ground motions required through selecting subsets of ground motions binned based on an intensity measure, IM. Method 3 ('simple multiple stripes') has the benefit of being consistent with conventional seismic assessment practice using as-recorded ground motions, but both methods 2 and 3 are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the conditioning IM to predict the seismic responses of interest. Method 4 ('GCIM-based selection') is consistent with 'advanced' selection methods used for as-recorded ground motions, and selects subsets of ground motions based on multiple IMs, thus overcoming this limitation in methods 2 and 3.

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National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update

Cited by 409 publications

References 156 publications

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Ground motion selection for simulation‐based seismic hazard and structural reliability assessment

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