Nationwide cohort study of hip fractures: time trends in the incidence rates and projections up to 2035

Abstract

The socioeconomic impact of hip fractures will be high in the near future. This study provides a quantitative basis for future policy decisions to serve this need.

Current trends and future projections of hip fracture in South Korea using nationwide claims data

“…The incidence of hip fractures in South Korea in 2008-2012 has been similar to those from recent reports from France and Taiwan [5,18] [ Table 2]. Data obtained from advanced countries beginning in the 1990s indicate that previously observed age-specific increases in the incidence of hip fracture have changed.…”

“…Recent reports from Taiwan showed that the incidence of hip fracture was decreasing and have yet to increase [18]. Both number and incidence of hip fracture in this study, however, still increased through 2012.…”

“…In a recent study from Finland, the ageadjusted incidence of hip fracture declined after 1997, but the number of hip fractures was predicted to increase by 1.8 times by 2030 [16]. In a recent study from Taiwan, although the incidence of hip fracture showed a tendency to decrease from 2004 to 2011, the number of fractures was expected to increase by 2.7 times over a span of 25 years (from 2010 to 2035) [18]. In our current study, the number of hip fractures was predicted to increase by 1.4 times over 10 years (from 2016 to 2025).…”

“…Although the incidence of hip fractures has decreased in advanced countries, their burden on health care systems continues to increase [16,18,33] [ Table 3]. In a report from the USA, despite incorporating the declining rate in hip fractures from 1990 to 2006 in a projection model, the researchers still predicted an increase in number of hip fractures from 1.3 to 2.5 time by 2035 [39].…”

Prevalence and risk factors of falls among community-dwelling older people: results from three consecutive waves of the national health interview survey in Taiwan

“…Thus, an approach that accounts for adults who have multimorbidity and are prescribed multiple medicines is recommended because such population has a higher risk for adverse events and drug interactions [53]. Considering the projected 2.7-fold growth in the number of hip fractures between 2010 and 2035 [54], the fall epidemic must be surveyed regularly, as the identification of risk factors in older people may help with developing individualized fall risk assessments [23] among high-risk seniors. Furthermore, this approach could enhance fall prevention programs to be more efficient and effective to reduce fall-related hospitalizations [12] in the future.…”