Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes

Sakariyahu, Rilwan; Lawal, Rodiat; Oyèkọ́lá, Ọláyínká; Dosumu, Oluwatoyin Esther; Adigun, Rasheed Adewale

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111153

Cited by 19 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Factors such as holidays, seasonal changes, and investors' mental states can affect asset pricing and returns (Kliger & Qadan, 2019;Shaikh, 2021). Additionally, unexpected events such as wars, diseases, and geopolitical crises shape investors' perceptions and decisions (French, 2018;Manela & Moreira, 2016;Sakariyahu, Lawal, Oyekola, Dosumu & Adigun, 2023). Considering these influences, this study explores the connection between global health and war crises, investor decisions, and the potential repercussions on the cryptocurrency market and prices.…”

Section: Ambiguity Aversion During a Global Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

The driving forces behind the prices of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the past five years

Mohammed,

De Pablos Heredero,

Montes Botella

2024

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Purpose: The primary objective of this study is to uncover the complex relationship between cryptocurrency prices and significant global events that transpired within the past five years. These events encompass a wide spectrum, including political and global health crises, the public disclosure of multinational enterprises' investments in cryptocurrencies, and the influence of macroeconomic indicators. Beyond the exclusive focus on Bitcoin, this study adopts a more comprehensive approach encompassing various cryptocurrencies.Design/methodology/approach: This study examines the effects of the disclosure of cryptocurrency adoption plans by major corporations, the Russian-Ukraine war, Covid-19, Inflation rate, and Economic policy uncertainty within the U.S., U.K., and E.U on cryptocurrency prices (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance coin) using a structural equation model over the past five years.Findings: Our findings provided several compelling insights. Most notably, during the study period major corporations’ adoption of cryptocurrencies positively influenced their price. Furthermore, a negative and significant association emerges between cryptocurrency prices and periods marked by economic policy uncertainty and inflation rates in the countries under investigation (U.S., U.K., and E.U). The results are robust under variations in sample composition and changes in sets of variables.Originality/value: The study uncovered the complex relationship between cryptocurrency price fluctuations and significant global events that transpired within the past five years by taking the factors identified in previous literature as a whole and adding new variables that are not well studied, such as the effect of Russian-Ukraine War and multinational corporations revealing cryptocurrency adoption intention on the prices of cryptocurrencies. This study represents a pivotal contribution by bridging a crucial research void and providing theoretical insights into the legal considerations to be undertaken by policymakers, and informed investment practices by traders, and corporate leaders.

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Section: Ambiguity Aversion During a Global Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

The driving forces behind the prices of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the past five years

Mohammed,

De Pablos Heredero,

Montes Botella

2024

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“…In this regard, we believe that the information contained in the realized moments actually captures these rare disaster events (Bouri et al, 2021;Demirer et al, 2022) 16 and translates into better forecast performance compared to sentiment. At the same time, the possibility that the dynamics of realized moments internalizes the information content of behavioral factors of agricultural commodity markets cannot be ruled out either, in light of disaster risks driving investor sentiments of in the asset markets (Manela & Moreira, 2017;Sakariyahu et al, 2023;Shan & Gong, 2012).…”

Section: Alternative Measures Of Sentimentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices: Does sentiment matter?

Bonato,

Cepni,

Gupta

et al. 2024

Journal of Forecasting

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We analyze the out‐of‐sample predictive power of sentiment for the realized volatility of agricultural commodity price returns. We use high‐frequency intra‐day data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate realized volatility. Our baseline forecasting model is a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, which we extend to include sentiment. We further enhance this model by incorporating various key realized moments such as leverage, realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized upside (“good”) volatility, realized downside (“bad”) volatility, realized jumps, realized upside tail risk, and realized downside tail risk. In order to setup a forecasting model, we use (i) forward and backward stepwise predictor selection and (ii) a model‐based averaging algorithm. The forecasting models constructed through these algorithms outperform both the baseline HAR‐RV model and the HAR‐RV‐sentiment model. We conclude that, for the agricultural commodities studied in our research, realized moments play a more significant role in forecasting realized volatility compared to sentiment.

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“…After the first regulation in 1940 and the Tosya-Lâdik earthquake in 1943 (27 November 1943, Mw = 7.7), a second earthquake regulation was followed in 1944. Other updates of the Code succeeded in 1947, 1949, 1953, and 1961, respectively [6]. In 1942, a map of earthquake zones was prepared for Türkiye.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure8, some locations currently on dry land were once underwater. Notable poi interest identified in these images include (1) the present-day Istanbul-İzmir highwa industrial zone connections, (2) Çiğli highway connection, (3) the Mav neighborhood, (4) the vicinity of Mavişehir and Izban Station, (5) the surroundin Bostanlı Mosque,(6) the Bayraklı coastal recreation area,(7) the Meles Delta, and ( Kordon area.These regions were formerly submerged in seawater or shallow wetlands as ev in satellite imagery. After the Samos Earthquake in 2020, analyses revealed t significant portion of the structures in these areas had incurred damage (Figu Particularly, severe damage was observed in buildings behind the Bostanlı Mosqu Karşıyaka, and along the Kordon.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Uncertain Certainty of a Nightmare: What If Another Destructive Earthquake Strikes Izmir (Türkiye)?

Salata,

Uzelli

2024

Sustainability

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On 6 February 2023, near Kahramanmaraş in south-central Türkiye, an event underscored the vulnerability of cities to seismic activity, revealing a lack of preparedness for substantial shocks. The contributing factors are manifold, yet fundamentally, the collapse of buildings and infrastructure can be attributed to an underestimated capacity for meticulous settlement planning (location) and the adoption of advanced techniques for resilient construction (structure). Regrettably, as has been investigated by many research works, ordinary urban planning in Türkiye hardly finds ways to integrate the vulnerability analysis for settlement expansion, which includes the full integration of geological characteristics with the analysis of building sensitivity. With this work, we wanted to build a composite risk index based on earthquake vulnerability, hazard amplification map, and exposure. We designed the composite index in Izmir’s basin, Türkiye’s third most populated city, to answer the question: What if a destructive earthquake strikes this densely settled area? The results illustrates how the coupled integration of digital data on geology with settlements and infrastructure in a Geographic Information System environment can be used to produce risk maps and plan the anthropic system’s adaptation carefully. Findings demonstrate the city is highly vulnerable to earthquakes and identify priority areas for planning intervention, relocation, and renovation of buildings.

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Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes

Cited by 19 publications

References 11 publications

The driving forces behind the prices of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the past five years

The driving forces behind the prices of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the past five years

Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices: Does sentiment matter?

The Uncertain Certainty of a Nightmare: What If Another Destructive Earthquake Strikes Izmir (Türkiye)?

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