Natural, Effective and Bop-Constrained Rates of Growth: Adjustment Mechanisms and Closure Equations

Porcile, Gabriel; Spinola, Danilo Sartorello

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3211836

Cited by 9 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…We fixed the income elasticity ratio, observing the effects of productivity on prices. However, it is important to mention that catching up and productivity growth also affects the productive structure through changes in income elasticities, moving the ε N / ε S ratio ( Cimoli & Porcile, 2014 ;Porcile & Spinola, 2018 ). An exogenous change in the income elasticity ratio has a similar effect as changes in a S , which can be observed by looking at the dynamic of terms of trade ˆ P and of its steady state P * .…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Thirlwall framework does not focus directly on productive heterogeneity. However, it discusses the role of income elasticity of demand for imports and exports, which can be linked to the evolution of the productive structure ( Cimoli & Porcile, 2014 ;Porcile & Spinola, 2018 ). In the canonical BPCM there is no inherent terms of trade decline trend as in the Structuralist tradition, a problem that has been discussed in the literature by authors such as Dutt (2002) , Razmi (2016) , andBlecker (2016) .…”

Section: Uneven Development and The Transitional Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, an important debate in the New Structuralism relates the BPCM to the productive structure of developing systems. In a recent strand of the Structuralist literature, learning and structural change are brought to the model by endogenizing income elasticities of imports and exports ( Cimoli & Porcile, 2014 ;Porcile & Spinola, 2018 ). Structural transformation and technological change alter the productive structure, affecting the income elasticity ratio, increasing the equilibrium rate of growth.…”

Section: The Structuralist Thirlwall Tradition -Productive Structure and Technology Gap In The Bpcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uneven Development and the Balance of Payments Constrained Model: Terms of Trade, Economic Cycles, and Productivity Catching-up.

Spinola

2019

Anais Do(a) Anais Do Encontro Internacional Da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira

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This paper addresses (I) the transition dynamics incompatibility between the BPCM and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis (PSH) (II) the causes of cyclical volatility in developing countries. In order to discuss these issues, we expand the Dutt (2002) model adding: (a) a productivity gap dynamics in which the south has a catching-up element; (b) a labor market dynamics, by including a wage curve in the relationship between employment rate and economic activity; and (c) a labor supply dynamics that considers the labor transfer issue between traditional and modern sectors. The result is a four dimensional dynamic model that represents a lagged developing economy constrained by its balance of payments. We find that our model converges and generates damped cycles. Fragile economies show an oscillatory decline in terms of trade, reinforcing an uneven development pattern between north and south. Industrialization and higher learning capabilities, however, can change the adjustment to a catching-up scenario.

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Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uneven Development and The Transitional Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Structuralist Thirlwall Tradition -Productive Structure and Technology Gap In The Bpcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Uneven Development and the Balance of Payments Constrained Model: Terms of Trade, Economic Cycles, and Productivity Catching-up.

Spinola

2019

Anais Do(a) Anais Do Encontro Internacional Da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira

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“…Cycles with neutral stability ( ( ) = 0 and ( ) ≠ 0) are only possible in the La Marca model when we see that competitiveness in terms of productivity is also affected by the distribution/output behavior in the exact value of a hopf bifurcation value. In this sense, we search to further develop the Structuralist literature, starting its central idea in which a chronic volatility is Volatility and External Crisis 68 generated by structural failures, in terms of a weak and fragile productive structure, and a low capacity to innovate (Porcile & Spinola, 2018). We briefly develop this idea in the next session.…”

Section: Model Expansionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are however articles focused on endogenizing the income elasticities in the structuralist theory, relating income elasticities to the behavior of the productive structure(Cimoli & Porcile, 2014;Porcile & Spinola, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

Cycles, economic structures and external constraints

Spinola¹

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People interested in the research are advised to contact the author for the final version of the publication, or visit the DOI to the publisher's website. • The final author version and the galley proof are versions of the publication after peer review. • The final published version features the final layout of the paper including the volume, issue and page numbers. Link to publication General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico). We apply impulse-response analysis on selected variables, testing the main assumption of the BPCM. This chapter also aims to look how exogenous shocks affect the economic system, observing the adjustment dynamics and the short-to long-run trajectory. This highlights the endogenous pattern of volatility and how the system answers to shocks in their key variables: trade balance, domestic growth and the real exchange rate (terms of trade).

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Total factor productivity, catch-up and technological congruence in Italy, 1861–2010

Antonelli¹,

Feder²

2019

Innovation, Catch-Up and Sustainable Development

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Natural, Effective and Bop-Constrained Rates of Growth: Adjustment Mechanisms and Closure Equations

Cited by 9 publications

References 37 publications

Uneven Development and the Balance of Payments Constrained Model: Terms of Trade, Economic Cycles, and Productivity Catching-up.

Uneven Development and the Balance of Payments Constrained Model: Terms of Trade, Economic Cycles, and Productivity Catching-up.

Cycles, economic structures and external constraints

Total factor productivity, catch-up and technological congruence in Italy, 1861–2010

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