Natural gas prices, LNG transport costs, and the dynamics of LNG imports

Maxwell, Don; Zhu, Zhen

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.06.012

Cited by 77 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Most approaches, such as for example Brown and Yücel (2008), Mu (2007) or Ramberg and Parsons (2012), treat gas inventories as exogenous with respect to gas prices and do not account for the role 4 of LNG. One exception is the study of Maxwell and Zhu (2011), which employs a reducedform VAR and Granger causality tests to investigate the interdependency of LNG imports and the US gas market. The assumption of exogenous gas inventories implies that storage operators do not adjust flows according to market prices, which is a restrictive assumption for liberalized and efficient gas markets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach

2014

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractIn this study, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the German natural gas market.Our setup allows us to analyze the determinants of the natural gas price in a comprehensive framework. In particular, we illustrate the usefulness of our approach by disentangling the effects of different fundamental influences on gas prices during three recent supply interruptions: The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009, the Libyan civil war in 2011 and the withheld Russian exports in February 2012. Our results show that the natural gas price is affected by temperature, storage and supply shortfalls in the short term, while the long-term development is closely tied to both crude oil and coal prices, capturing the economic climate and the energy specific demand.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach

2014

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“…Some suggestions are proposed to improve China's long-term natural gas import security such as improving early warning services for maritime disaster risks [13]. Maxwell and Zhu examined the import of liquefied natural gas in the United States by using monthly data on LNG imports from 1997 to 2007 [14]. Jia, Geng and Fan used the panel cointegration method to study the impact of international oil prices on natural gas import prices in the three major natural gas markets.…”

Section: Literature Review Of Natural Gas Importmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Natural Gas Imports in OECD Countries

Yang

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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The natural gas receives universal attention and priority use around the world because of its high quality and cleanness. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries' data on imports of natural gas are rich in market information and have foresight. We quantify the role of the market in resource allocation. Based on the random matrix method, this article studies the correlation coefficient matrix of OECD countries' natural gas imports by average correlation coefficients and explores the information that the natural gas imports market contains. At the same time, this article analyzes the risk and correlation in the OECD countries' natural gas imports market by eigenvalues, regression analysis and absorption. Finally, combined with the clustering method, we synchronize and regionalize the OECD countries' natural gas import market. We can find that the OECD countries' natural gas imports are related by analyzing the correlation coefficient and the risk. Correlations in OECD countries' natural gas imports market are high. We find that different eigenvalues have different effects on the OECD countries' natural gas imports market by researching on the entropy of the eigenvalues. We can correctly predict the turning points of OECD countries' natural gas imports and find the correlation coefficient matrix contains advanced market information. Through the method of absorption rate, the risk of the gas import market in OECD countries is further studied. It is found that the import of natural gas in OECD countries is large and the whole market is unstable. Through the method of dynamic clustering, it is found that the whole OECD countries have high synchronism in the market of natural gas import, except for Germany.

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“…New technologies that lead to an increased efficiency in each step of the LNG chain are permanently in the focus of consideration. The information given in this section is based on many References (for example, EIA, 2003 and2004;NTL, 2005;IIF-IIR, 2006;PFC Energy, 2011;GIIGNL, 2011;PLATTS, 2011;EUROGAS, 2011;Foss, 2003;Patel, 2005;Dorigoni & Portatadino, 2008;Maxwell & Zhu, 2011;Kumar et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%