Natural gas scenarios in the U.S. power sector

Logan, Jeffrey; Lopez, Anthony; Mai, Trieu; Davidson, Carolyn; Bazilian, Morgan; Arent, D. J.

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.008

Cited by 61 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Recent publications using ReEDS include the SunShot Vision study (DOE 2012), the Renewable Electricity Futures study (NREL 2012), and other papers (Mai et al 2014a;Mai et al 2014b;Clemmer et al 2014;Mignone et al 2013;Lantz et al 2014;Logan et al 2013). An earlier version of the ReEDS model was also used to develop scenarios for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report (DOE 2008).…”

Section: Regional Energy Deployment System (Reeds) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The full model documentation (Short et al 2011), chapter 3 of the Wind Vision report (DOE 2015), and Appendices G and H of the Wind Vision (DOE 2015) are sources for further details on model equations and data assumptions. In addition, other recent publications using ReEDS include the SunShot Vision study (DOE 2012), the Renewable Electricity Futures study (NREL 2012), and other papers (Mai et al 2014a;Mai et al 2014b;Clemmer et al 2014;Mignone et al 2013;Lantz et al 2014;Logan et al 2013).…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

et al. 2016

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This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (forthcoming) evaluates societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 GW would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3%, respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or with greater advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030 the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050 wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million MW-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under "business-as-usual" conditions.

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Section: Regional Energy Deployment System (Reeds) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

et al. 2016

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“…In a similar analysis, Logan et al 20 projects that under a midlevel natural gas production scenario, electricity-sector emissions would be 5% lower in 2050 relative to a low natural gas production scenario in which wind and new coal plants generate more power.…”

Section: Projected Future Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Shale Gas Development for Climate Change

Newell

Raimi²

2014

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

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“…Jacoby et al (2012) show the cost-reducing effect of high usage of natural gas in meeting GHG emission targets. Likewise, Logan et al (2013) see a cost advantage of natural gas power generation to meet clean energy standards. Finally, Jenner and Lamadrid (2013) highlight the trade-off between coal and shale gas fueled power generation on various dimensions, and conclude with a pro-shale gas development.…”

Section: A Brief Look At the Us Shale Gas Boommentioning

confidence: 99%

From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

Richter¹

2015

EEEP

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US shale gas production is generally expected to continue its fast rise. However, a cautious evaluation is needed.Shale gas resource estimates are potentially overoptimistic and it is uncertain to which extent they can be produced economically. Moreover, the adverse environmental effects of ever more wells to be drilled may lead to a fall in public acceptance and a strengthening of regulation. The objective of this paper is hence twofold: providing a critical look at current US shale gas projections, and investigating in a second step the implications of a less optimistic development by means of numerical simulation. In a world of declining US shale production after 2015, natural gas consumption outside the USA is reduced from its reference path by at least as much as US consumption. Trade flows are redirected, and the current US debate on LNG export capacity requirements becomes obsolete.

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Natural gas scenarios in the U.S. power sector

Cited by 61 publications

References 8 publications

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

Implications of Shale Gas Development for Climate Change

From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

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