Natural gas: The fracking fallacy

Inman, Mason

doi:10.1038/516028a

Cited by 55 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…It seems likely that continued depletion of conventional resources will keep the market favourable for tight oil and gas [41] and the oil inelastic price phase as suggested by Murray and King [40] may have been a temporary anomaly. Tight oil and gas reserves are not likely as expansive as initially estimated [42]. Despite the potential health and environmental risks [43], tight gas production will be necessary towards smoothing the drop in conventional gas production that is projected by mid-century [39,44].…”

Section: Reserve Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Climate-Independent Need for Renewable Energy in the 21st Century

Warner

Jones

2017

Energies

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Abstract:In December 2015 the nations of the world agreed, in principle, to limit global warming to no more than 2 • C above pre-industrial levels. In order to achieve this goal, recent publications have shown that (1) more than 50% of known fossil fuel reserves need to remain unused, and (2) the timing of the transition away from fossil fuels needs to achieve 50% renewable energy by 2028, an expansion of renewable sources of 37-fold in the next 12 years. This rate of expansion is unprecedented and unlikely to be achieved. Even utilizing the 50% of fossil fuels untapped in a <2 • C scenario results in significant expansion of renewable energy sources by 2100. Here we examine three fossil fuel reserve estimates and two per capita energy consumption tracks to understand how dominant renewable energy sources need to be during the second half of the 21st century. We find that per capita energy consumption rates are a more significant factor in the demand for renewable energy infrastructure, as wide ranging estimates of fossil fuel reserves still result in peak production by mid-century. At either of the consumption rates, attempting to uphold the 2 • C global warming goal would demand more energy from renewable sources than was produced from all sources in 2014. In total, the world will likely require between 600 and 2000 exajoules of renewable energy by the year 2100, a significant expansion from the 13 produced in 2014. Despite meaningful gains in renewable energy sources, the transition away from fossil fuels is not keeping pace with rising global population, and expansion of global per capita consumption. Even in the absence of global warming concerns, renewable energy infrastructure needs to immediately begin significant expansion.

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Section: Reserve Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Climate-Independent Need for Renewable Energy in the 21st Century

Warner

Jones

2017

Energies

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“…Another major concern of the shale gas revolution is that the use of a few years of production history to predict decades of commercial production may have overestimated productivity256. Among many other methods, a decline curve analysis is the most frequently used method for EUR estimation47.…”

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confidence: 99%

Nanostructural control of methane release in kerogen and its implications to wellbore production decline

Criscenti

Wang

2016

Sci Rep

101

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Despite massive success of shale gas production in the US in the last few decades there are still major concerns with the steep decline in wellbore production and the large uncertainty in a long-term projection of decline curves. A reliable projection must rely on a mechanistic understanding of methane release in shale matrix–a limiting step in shale gas extraction. Using molecular simulations, we here show that methane release in nanoporous kerogen matrix is characterized by fast release of pressurized free gas (accounting for ~30–47% recovery) followed by slow release of adsorbed gas as the gas pressure decreases. The first stage is driven by the gas pressure gradient while the second stage is controlled by gas desorption and diffusion. We further show that diffusion of all methane in nanoporous kerogen behaves differently from the bulk phase, with much smaller diffusion coefficients. The MD simulations also indicate that a significant fraction (3–35%) of methane deposited in kerogen can potentially become trapped in isolated nanopores and thus not recoverable. Our results shed a new light on mechanistic understanding gas release and production decline in unconventional reservoirs. The long-term production decline appears controlled by the second stage of gas release.

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“…So far, the most promising regions of technically recoverable resources outside of North America have been identified in Russia, China, Argentina and Libya (EIA 2013). However, some researchers also warn that recent estimates of contingent resources of shale oil and gas are too high (Hughes 2014;Inman 2014). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale

et al. 2017

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, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was calculated using two empirical production decline curve models, the hyperbolic and the stretched exponential function. Individual well productivity, which can be described by IP level, production decline curvature and well lifetime, varies significantly. The average monthly IP was found to be around 500 bbl/day, which yields an EUR in the range of 150-290 kbbl depending on used curve, assumed well lifetime or production cutoff level. More detailed analyses on EUR can be made once longer time series are available. For more realistic modeling of multiple wells a probabilistic approach might be favorable to account for variety in well productivity. For less detailed modeling, for example conceptual regional bottom-up production modeling, the hyperbolic function with deterministic parameters might be preferred because of ease of use, for example with the average parameter values IP = 500 bbl/day, D = 0.3 and b = 1 resulting in an EUR of 250 kbbl with a 30-year well lifetime, however, with the recognition that this extrapolation is uncertain.

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Natural gas: The fracking fallacy

Cited by 55 publications

References 4 publications

The Climate-Independent Need for Renewable Energy in the 21st Century

The Climate-Independent Need for Renewable Energy in the 21st Century

Nanostructural control of methane release in kerogen and its implications to wellbore production decline

Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale

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