Natural mortality: Theory, estimation and application in fishery stock assessment models

Hamel, Owen S.; Ianelli, James N.; Maunder, Mark N.; Punt, André E.

doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106638

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The assumption of stationarity in survival, growth and fecundity limits our ability to assess the effects of ecosystem processes on population dynamics (Hamel et al, 2023;Lorenzen, 2016). When the assumption of stationary survival, growth and fecundity is violated, any variability will be misattributed to other population (e.g., fishing mortality) or observation processes (e.g., gear selectivity; Pope et al, 2021) that are estimated to vary over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While typical stock assessment models include components of survival (e.g., natural mortality), growth (e.g., size‐at‐age) and fecundity (e.g., maturity‐at‐age), they are often treated as fixed inputs and assumed to be stationary in some cases. The assumption of stationarity in survival, growth and fecundity limits our ability to assess the effects of ecosystem processes on population dynamics (Hamel et al., 2023; Lorenzen, 2016). When the assumption of stationary survival, growth and fecundity is violated, any variability will be misattributed to other population (e.g., fishing mortality) or observation processes (e.g., gear selectivity; Pope et al., 2021) that are estimated to vary over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Testing models of increasing complexity to develop ecosystem‐informed fisheries advice

Robertson,

Cadigan,

Regular

et al. 2024

Fish and Fisheries

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Despite continued calls for the application of ecosystem‐based fisheries management, tactical fisheries management continues to be heavily reliant on single‐species stock assessments. These stock assessments rarely quantitatively integrate the effects of ecosystem processes on fish stock productivity. This lack of integration is ultimately driven by the complexity of interactions between populations, ecosystems and fisheries, which produces uncertainty when defining which processes to include and how to include them. Models developed using a structured hypothesis testing framework would allow formalizing uncertainties while underscoring the importance of incorporating different population and ecosystem processes to explain non‐stationary stock productivity. Here, we develop a conceptual framework for extending and comparing population dynamics models of increasing complexity. We illustrate the utility of the framework by investigating the population and ecosystem processes that most likely affected the differential recovery of two flatfish populations (American plaice and yellowtail flounder) on the Newfoundland Grand Banks over the past three decades. We found that yellowtail flounder population dynamics were primarily driven by recruitment variability, which was negatively affected by warmer climatological conditions, as indicated by an integrated regional climate index. Meanwhile, American plaice population dynamics were affected by a combination of temporal variability in recruitment and natural mortality, where natural mortality increased during colder than average conditions. By exploring hypotheses about the effects of population and ecosystem processes on population dynamics, this modelling framework will improve understanding about the drivers of shifts in population productivity while serving as a transparent and robust approach to support ecosystem‐based fisheries management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing models of increasing complexity to develop ecosystem‐informed fisheries advice

Robertson,

Cadigan,

Regular

et al. 2024

Fish and Fisheries

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Impacts of climate change on mangrove subsistence fisheries: a global review

Alberto,

Teano,

Paz-Alberto

et al. 2024

Mar Life Sci Technol

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Climate change will impact coastal ecosystems, threatening subsistence fisheries including those in mangrove forests. Despite their global contributions and roles in nutrition and cultural identity, mangrove subsistence fisheries are poorly studied. Here, we offer a foundation for improving the management of mangrove subsistence fisheries to deal with the impending effects of climate change. This multidisciplinary review—drawing on organismal biology, ecology, fisheries, and social science—focuses on the climate impacts relevant to mangrove ecosystems: heat waves, low-category, and high-category typhoons. First, we provide an overview of the mangroves, their harvestable stocks (fish, crustaceans, molluscs), and the fishers, offering an understanding of how they may be affected by relevant environmental variables; i.e., shifts in temperature, salinity, oxygen, flooding, and sediments. Then, we examine the potential effects of climate change on mangrove stocks and fishers, indicating the scope of impending changes. By combining the above information, we develop a simple model that forecasts the number of “fishing-days” lost by fishers due to climate change over the next decade (between 11 and 21 days will be lost per year per fisher). This indicates which aspects of climate change will have the greatest impacts on stocks and fishers. We found that high-category typhoons had more impacts than heat waves, which in turn had a greater impact than low-category typhoons). Finally, recognising gaps in our knowledge and understanding, we offer recommendations for approaches for future work to improve our predictions.

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Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it: A perspective on current stock assessment good practices and the consequences of not following them

Punt

2023

Fisheries Research

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Natural mortality: Theory, estimation and application in fishery stock assessment models

Cited by 11 publications

References 44 publications

Testing models of increasing complexity to develop ecosystem‐informed fisheries advice

Testing models of increasing complexity to develop ecosystem‐informed fisheries advice

Impacts of climate change on mangrove subsistence fisheries: a global review

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it: A perspective on current stock assessment good practices and the consequences of not following them

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