Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth

Abstract

This research develops an evolutionary growth theory that captures the interplay between the evolution of mankind and economic growth since the emergence of the human species. This uni…ed theory encompasses the observed evolution of population, technology and income per capita in the long transition from an epoch of Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. The theory suggests that prolonged economic stagnation prior to the transition to sustained growth stimulated natural selection that shaped the evolution of the human species, whereas the evolution of the human species was the origin of the take-o¤ from an epoch of stagnation to sustained growth.

Changing the Paradigm

“…The GDP is in billions of the 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars. Contrary to the claim made by Galor and Moav [25], the Industrial Revolution had no effect on the economic growth in Western Europe, the cradle of this revolution, and the two regimes of growth did not exist.…”

“…Research based on impressions, reinforced by the customary crude representation of data [2] [14]- [22] [25] [74], has led to a conclusion that the Industrial Revolution and the associated unprecedented technological development had a profound impact on the economic growth [14] [20] [25] causing its dramatic acceleration described as a takeoff. Mathematical analysis of the same data shows that the Industrial Revolution had absolutely no impact on the economic growth, even in Western Europe, the crucible of this revolution.…”

“…Research based on impressions has led to a conclusion that the economic growth is characterized by two or even three distinctly different regimes of growth governed by complex and distinctly different mechanisms [14] [20] [25]. Mathematical analysis of the same data shows that the distinctly different regions of growth did not exist and that the economic growth was governed by a simple and uniform mechanism generating the simplest, first-order hyperbolic distributions.…”

“…The illusion becomes particularly strong when only a few strategically located points are selected [2] [14]- [22] [25] [74] from a significantly larger set of data as if to make the deception even more pronounced. Even if the enforcement of the perceived illusion is unintended, such crude displays of data lead readily to grossly incorrect interpretations.…”

“…Galor and Moav [25] studied economic growth in Western Europe using the data of Maddison [76]. They have selected four, strategically located points from a larger set of data, joined them by straight lines and concluded that there were two distinctly different regimes of growth: the "Malthusian regime" (also labelled as the "epoch of stagnation", "Malthusian era", "Malthusian epoch", "Malthusian steady-state equilibrium", "Malthusian stagnation" or "Malthusian trap") and the "sustained economic growth" (described also as the "Modern Growth Regime", "sustained economic growth" and "sustained growth regime").…”