Natural Variability and Vertical Land Motion Contributions in the Mediterranean Sea-Level Records over the Last Two Centuries and Projections for 2100

Vecchio, A.; Anzidei, Marco; Serpelloni, Enrico; Florindo, Fabio

doi:10.3390/w11071480

Cited by 36 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(117 reference statements)

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“…The estimates agree with the 20 th century trend of sea-level rise of 1.2±0.1 mm/year reported for the same stations by Marcos et al (2016). The 1-sigma errors are around 0.1 mm/year according to Marcos and Tsimplis, (2008) and Wöppelmann and Marcos, (2012), and between 0.10 and 0.24 mm/year (90% confidence) in Vecchio et al (2019). Zerbini et al (2017) obtained uncertainty values between 0.13 and 0.22 mm/year at 95% confidence level considering a reduced number of degrees of freedom due to time autocorrelation.…”

Section: Secular Trendsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The available estimates can be distinguished depending on whether the analyzed period starts before or in 1993, when satellite altimetry became available. Marcos and Tsimplis (2008), Wöppelmann and Marcos, (2012) and Vecchio et al (2019) used a linear fit to analyze the RSL data from about 1910 to 2000, obtaining trends between 2.4 and 2.5 mm/year. Vecchio et al (2019) also modelled the time series by means of the superposition of a straight line and three Empirical Mode Decomposition components, suggesting a slightly larger trend of 2.78 mm/year.…”

Section: Secular Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Marcos and Tsimplis (2008), Wöppelmann and Marcos, (2012) and Vecchio et al (2019) used a linear fit to analyze the RSL data from about 1910 to 2000, obtaining trends between 2.4 and 2.5 mm/year. Vecchio et al (2019) also modelled the time series by means of the superposition of a straight line and three Empirical Mode Decomposition components, suggesting a slightly larger trend of 2.78 mm/year. Zerbini et al (2017) isolated the effect of subsidence on the Venetian RSL time series by deriving an empirical curve from levelling data of benchmarks close to the tide gauge, GPS and InSAR heights ( Fig.…”

Section: Secular Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Zanchettin

Bruni

Raicich

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The City of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ~150 years, this was characterized by a secular linear trend of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in understanding, estimating and predicting the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with focus on the most recent publications. The current best estimate of historical sea-level rise in Venice, based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects, is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year (period from 1872 to 2019). Subsidence thus contributed to about half of the observed relative sea-level rise over the same period. A higher – yet more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed during recent decades, estimated from tide-gauge data to be about 2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year in the period 1993–2019 for the climatic component alone. An unresolved issue is the contrast between the observational capacity of tide gauges and satellite altimetry, with the latter tool not covering the Venice Lagoon. Water mass exchanges through the Gibraltar Strait currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Subsidence and regional atmospheric and oceanic circulation mechanisms can deviate Venetian relative sea-level trends from the global mean values for several decades. Regional processes will likely continue to determine significant interannual and interdecadal variability of Venetian sea level with magnitude comparable to that observed in the past, as well as non-negligible differential trends. Our estimate of the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate change is presently estimated between 11 and 110 centimetres. An improbable yet possible high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 170 centimetres of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of natural and human induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, further increasing the hazard posed by climatically-induced sea-level changes.

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Section: Secular Trendsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Secular Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Secular Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Zanchettin

Bruni

Raicich

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Due to the potential significant impacts on both the coast and the heritage sites of the Temple of Pyrgi and the Santa Severa Castle with a beach retreat up to ~25 m, the expected scenario shown in this study can support adaptation planning at different time scales, in agreement with the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in the Mediterranean. Our results details previous studies for the Italian [19,30,31,32,33,34,35] and the Mediterranean [36,37] regions and can raise awareness of policymakers and heritage managers, highlighting the need for adaptation actions to protect Pyrgi from marine flooding and erosion under the current conditions and for the expected sea level rise scenarios. To this regard, we remark that [38] estimated a mean coastal erosion at a rate of 3.3 cm/year since the last 2.500 years although the retreat of the soft cliffs characterizing the Pyrgi coastline is occurring mostly during high energy marine events.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

Anzidei¹,

Doumaz²,

Vecchio³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Sea level rise is one of the main factor of risk for the preservation of cultural heritage sites located along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin. Coastal retreat, erosion and storm surges are yet posing serious threats to archaeological and historical structures built along the coastal zones of this region. In order to assess the coastal changes by the end of 2100 under an expected sea level rise of about 1 m, a detailed determination of the current coastline position and the availability of high resolution DSM, is needed. This paper focuses on the use of very high-resolution UAV imagery for the generation of ultra-high resolution mapping of the coastal archaeological area of Pyrgi, near Rome (Italy). The processing of the UAV imagery resulted in the generation of a DSM and an orthophoto, with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel. The integration of topographic data with two sea level rise projections in the IPCC AR5 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for this area of the Mediterranean, were used to map sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The effects of the Vertical Land Motion (VLM) as estimated from two nearby continuous GPS stations located as much as close to the coastline, were included in the analysis. Relative sea level rise projections provide values at 0.30±0.15 cm by 2050 and 0.56±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios and at 0.13±0.05 cm by 2050 and 0.17±0.22 by 2100, for the IPCC AR5 2.6 scenario. These values of rise will correspond to a potential beach loss between 12.6% and 23.5% in 2100 for RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while during the highest tides the beach will be reduced up to 46.4%. With these sea level rise scenarios, Pyrgi with its nearby Etruscan temples and the medieval castle of Santa Severa will be soon exposed to high risk of marine flooding, especially during storm surges, thus requiring suitable adaptation strategies.

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“…Our results detail previous studies for the Italian [7][8][9]12,[45][46][47] and the Mediterranean [10,48] regions and can contribute to raise awareness of policymakers and heritage managers toward the coastal hazard by highlighting the need to adapt actions to protect Pyrgi from marine flooding and erosion under the current conditions due to the expected sea level rise and storm surge scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

Anzidei

Doumaz

Vecchio

et al. 2020

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea level rise is one of the main risk factors for the preservation of cultural heritage sites located along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin. Coastal retreat, erosion, and storm surges are posing serious threats to archaeological and historical structures built along the coastal zones of this region. In order to assess the coastal changes by the end of 2100 under the expected sea level rise of about 1 m, we need a detailed determination of the current coastline position based on high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). This paper focuses on the use of very high-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) imagery for the generation of ultra-high-resolution mapping of the coastal archaeological area of Pyrgi, Italy, which is located near Rome. The processing of the UAV imagery resulted in the generation of a DSM and an orthophoto with an accuracy of 1.94 cm/pixel. The integration of topographic data with two sea level rise projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 2.6 and 8.5 climatic scenarios for this area of the Mediterranean are used to map sea level rise scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The effects of the Vertical Land Motion (VLM) as estimated from two nearby continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations located as close as possible to the coastline are included in the analysis. Relative sea level rise projections provide values at 0.30 ± 0.15 cm by 2050 and 0.56 ± 0.22 cm by 2100 for the IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios and at 0.13 ± 0.05 cm by 2050 and 0.17 ± 0.22 cm by 2100, for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) 2.6 scenario. These values of rise correspond to a potential beach loss between 12.6% and 23.5% in 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while, during the highest tides, the beach will be provisionally reduced by up to 46.4%. In higher sea level positions and storm surge conditions, the expected maximum wave run up for return time of 1 and 100 years is at 3.37 m and 5.76 m, respectively, which is capable to exceed the local dune system. With these sea level rise scenarios, Pyrgi with its nearby Etruscan temples and the medieval castle of Santa Severa will be exposed to high risk of marine flooding, especially during storm surges. Our scenarios show that suitable adaptation and protection strategies are required.

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Natural Variability and Vertical Land Motion Contributions in the Mediterranean Sea-Level Records over the Last Two Centuries and Projections for 2100

Cited by 36 publications

References 76 publications

Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

Sea Level Rise Scenario for 2100 A.D. in the Heritage Site of Pyrgi (Santa Severa, Italy)

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