Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People's Republic of China, and India

Petri, Peter A.; Zhai, Fan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2205553

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Only a few papers have combined the two approaches, linking models of economic growth to sectoral simulations. Petri and Zhai () use the growth projections by the ADB () as a baseline for their CGE model. They focus on the economic prospects of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China and India by the year 2030.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

2016

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International audienceNotwithstanding the current slowdown, the geography and composition of international trade are changing fast. We link a macroeconomic growth model and sectoral computable general equilibrium framework in order to project the world economy forward to the year 2035 and assess to what extent current trends in trade are expected to continue. Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: the emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South–South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalisation may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: for some countries, upskilling will be crucial; for others, labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

2016

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“…This exercise was calibrated on the GTAP-2001 database (we used GTAP-2011 for MIRAGE). Petri and Zhai (2013) combine Asian Development Bank growth projections at the 2050 horizon (ADB, 2011) with a CGE model in order to develop their scenarios. In addition to a focus on Asia rather than a world-wide perspective, the big difference from our study is not the horizon considered, but the methodology used to design the scenarios.…”

Section: Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value Added in Motion: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon

Fontagné

Fouré

2015

SSRN Journal

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We address in this paper the future geography of production, migration and energy at the world level, and the consequences for the largest European countries. We take scant account of the wide range of possible evolutions of the world economy in terms of technological progress and diffusion, education, demography including migrations and finally energy price and efficiency. Taking a 2035 horizon, we examine how world trade patterns will be shaped by the changing comparative advantages, demand, and capabilities of different regions, and what will be the implications in terms of location of value added at the sector and country level. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital, labour and energy) and two factor-specific productivities, alongside a dynamic CGE model of the world economy calibrated to reproduce observed elasticity of trade to income. Each scenario involves three steps. First, we project growth at country level based on factor accumulation, demography and migration, educational attainment and efficiency gains, and discuss uncertainties related to our main drivers. Second, we impose this framework on the CGE baseline. Third, we implement trade policy scenarios (tariffs as well as non-tariff measures in goods and services), in order to get factor allocation across sectors from the model as well as demand and trade patterns.

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“…The middle class are no longer tied to the mechanics of survival-they are often educated, mobile, and urban, and they have the tools to influence the directions of development. The middle class populations of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the PRC, and India, for example, already number 500 million people and will likely surge to 2.5 billion by 2030 (Petri and Zhai 2013). In the next 2 decades, the shares of middle or upper income classes are projected to increase to 67% of the population of the ASEAN, 84% of the PRC, and 70% of India ( Figure 5).…”

Section: A Rising Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development Imperatives for the Asian Century

Petri

Thomas

2013

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. Terms of use: Documents inADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: In this publication, "$" refers to US dollars.The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia's development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB's country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness.

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Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People's Republic of China, and India

Cited by 8 publications

References 17 publications

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

Value Added in Motion: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon

Development Imperatives for the Asian Century

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